Super Micro Slides 7% Despite Gartner’s $957 Billion AI Server Forecast; Dell Falls 4%, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Dips
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An upbeat AI spending forecast from Gartner (NYSE:IT | IT Price Prediction) is losing a tug-of-war with a leadership shock at the top of the AI chip trade. Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) stock is at $28.15, down 7%, in Thursday morning trading. The decline follows the server maker’s November 3 report, when it lifted its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to a range of $72 billion to $82 billion.
Graphics processing units (GPUs) from NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) sit at the heart of Super Micro’s servers, so the two stocks tend to trade together. NVIDIA stock is down 5%, and that decline is weighing on the broader technology sector.
Gartner Sees AI Server Spending Surging in 2027
In a forecast published November 12, Gartner analyst John-David Lovelock projected that spending on AI-optimized servers could reach $957.2 billion in 2027. For 2026, Gartner estimates AI-optimized server spending at $527.6 billion. Faster-than-expected growth in AI inference workloads, more compute-intensive training, hyperscaler and neocloud build-outs, and “memflation,” the firm’s term for memory-driven increases in AI server prices, are driving the jump.
Gartner also expects total worldwide AI spending to climb 47.5% to $4.05 trillion in 2027. Infrastructure would make up $2.4 trillion of that total. That’s a clear majority in Gartner’s forecast, and the server builders are only one slice of that spend (we rounded up seven other AI infrastructure suppliers, from power to cooling, in a free report you can grab here).
Jensen Huang resigned as NVIDIA’s CEO, president and board member on November 12, with chief financial officer Colette Kress named interim CEO. That leadership shock is drowning out Gartner’s forecast across the AI server group, which rebounded sharply on November 11 before reversing.
Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Slip Less Than Super Micro
Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) stock is at $357.41, down 4%. The pullback is softer than Super Micro’s, and Dell’s revenue base reaches well beyond AI systems into traditional servers, storage and personal computers (PCs), and a broader mix like that may help buffer Dell against NVIDIA-linked selling.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) stock is at $49.59, down 1%. Among the three, that’s the smallest decline. CEO Antonio Neri described the company on September 2 as increasingly becoming “a networking company.” Networking gear sits a step removed from the GPU-packed racks that tie Super Micro so closely to NVIDIA.
Upcoming earnings reports from both Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise could offer fresh reads on AI server demand. Super Micro already reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $19.9 billion on November 3, which CEO Charles Liang said was “well ahead of our original outlook of $15 billion.”
How Super Micro’s Business Model Stands Apart
Focused on AI servers and rack-scale systems, Super Micro ties its growth heavily to large data center customers and NVIDIA’s platform roadmap. Liang has pitched the company’s Data Center Building Block Solutions, which bundle hardware, management software and services, as a way to speed delivery and lower total cost of ownership. That concentration gives Super Micro more upside when AI spending speeds up and more downside when sentiment toward NVIDIA sours.
Dell runs a broader information technology franchise spanning AI servers, traditional servers, storage and commercial and consumer PCs. Jeff Clarke stated on Dell’s latest earnings call that “AI is an important catalyst, but the opportunity extends well beyond AI optimized infrastructure.” PC sales add scale and cash generation that pure server builders can’t easily match.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise leans increasingly on networking after its Juniper Networks acquisition, alongside servers, storage and financial services, and higher-margin networking gear gives the company a profit buffer that pure server assemblers lack.
What’s Next for Super Micro After NVIDIA’s Leadership Shock
Super Micro’s next challenge is whether Gartner’s demand outlook can outweigh uncertainty around NVIDIA’s leadership transition. Bulls can point to the company’s raised revenue outlook and Gartner’s call for a steep jump in AI server spending.
Meanwhile, the bears can cite a cautionary Gartner forecast. Gartner warned in October. It said more than $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could face impairment by 2030 if investment continues at its current pace, because AI revenue may fall short of earning a return on all planned capital spending. One customer accounted for 44% of Super Micro’s revenue in Q1, and that’s a real exposure if a major buyer slows its spending.
Super Micro stock has whipsawed alongside its AI server peers, and NVIDIA’s next moves under interim leadership could keep that volatility elevated. That background could favor a cautious approach while NVIDIA’s leadership transition plays out.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk. His work has appeared in 24/7 Wall St., The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, MarketScreener, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, and others. With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
