Super Micro Computer Cratered Again, Down 35% in One Month: This Lead Analyst Who Just Defended Nvidia Says Super Micro Computer Shares to Gain 140%
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Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI | SMCI Price Prediction) currently trades at $26.99, against an average analyst price target of $43.60. That gap implies 61.5% upside.
Super Micro builds rack-scale, liquid-cooled AI servers, and its latest quarterly revenue reached $19.9 billion, up 298% year over year. Raymond James senior analyst Simon Leopold keeps a $65.00 target, which implies 140.8% upside. He is the same analyst who just repeated a $515.00 target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) after reports that Jensen Huang was ousted as CEO.
A DOJ Probe and an AI Hardware Rout Wiped Out Nearly a Third of Super Micro
Reports of a Manhattan DOJ inquiry into possible China diversion of Super Micro hardware did the most damage, sending shares down 11.3% in the latest session. Over one month, the stock fell 30.92% from $39.07. After a selloff of more than 30%, both upside figures now exceed 40%. The probe, which reportedly links Megaspeed/Alice Huang to Super Micro hardware, reopens an export-control overhang the board addressed when it completed an independent investigation.
Sector pressure amplified the move. NVIDIA fell 27.28% over the same month amid leadership turmoil, while the S&P 500 slipped just 2.67%.
Fundamentals gave bears ammunition too. Gross margin fell to 12.8% from 17.6% as thinner-margin AI installations dominated the mix. One customer accounted for 44% of revenue, and free cash flow was negative $481 million.
Raymond James Stays Bullish While Most of Wall Street Sits on Hold
Leopold’s target comes from his post-earnings update, and his case rests on demand that keeps exceeding forecasts. Revenue of $19.9 billion beat the $16.26 billion consensus, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.81 topped the $1.2346 estimate. Management raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to $72 billion to $82 billion from $65 billion to $72 billion.
Bulls are focused on capacity and backlog. Super Micro expects to produce more than 8,000 racks per month, including over 4,000 direct-liquid-cooled racks by December, with NVIDIA Vera Rubin and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) Helios platforms scaling up. Management reported a record backlog and said, “Our demand far outstrips the availability of key components.” The cash conversion cycle also improved from 149 days to 97 days. Super Micro is exactly the kind of non-chipmaker riding the AI data-center expansion (we covered seven suppliers across power, cooling, and rack systems in a free report).
Leopold has not yet addressed the DOJ investigation, so his target precedes the newest risk. The broader Street is cooler, with two Strong Buy and two Buy ratings against 11 Holds, two Sells and one Strong Sell. That makes the Raymond James reiteration an outlier.
Dell and HPE Sold Off Just as Hard, Yet Analysts Trust Them More
The whole AI server group sold off together.
Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) fell 35.07% over the past month. At $371.30 against a $590 average target, it offers 58.9% implied upside, slightly below Super Micro’s. Its 29 analysts include five Strong Buys, 14 Buys and 10 Holds with zero Sells.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) dropped 27.1% in a month. At $50.18 versus a $72.20 target, implied upside is 43.9%, smaller than Super Micro’s. Four Strong Buys, 10 Buys and 10 Holds, with no Sells, give it a cleaner profile.
Super Micro holds the group’s largest consensus upside but its weakest ratings. Targets are estimates, and that spread looks like a discount for legal and concentration risk.
A Monthly Loss That Dwarfs the S&P 500’s Dip
Super Micro currently trades at $26.99, with a 18-analyst consensus target of $43.60 implying 61.5% upside. Shares trade at roughly 6x trailing and 4x forward earnings, with a beta of 2.181.
Shares fell 30.92% over one month while the S&P 500 lost 2.67%. Year to date, Super Micro is down 7.79%, compared with an 11.05% gain for the S&P 500.
Super Micro’s Growth Is Real, but the DOJ Probe Comes First
The bull case improves if the DOJ inquiry ends without charges against the company and it delivers the $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion it guided this quarter at a 12% to 12.5% gross margin. That keeps the raised annual outlook in reach and makes a single-digit multiple look too cheap.
The bear case improves if the probe broadens into penalties or lost customers, if its largest customer slows orders, or if component shortages push deliveries out. Management already expects second-half margins below the first half, and negative free cash flow leaves little room.
I lean bullish on the business and neutral on the stock. The growth supports the consensus target, but Leopold’s 140.8% call has yet to absorb the newest legal risk. The stock is worth watching until the DOJ picture clears.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
