Treasuries Now Yield 5.1%. These High-Yield Dividend Stocks Could Be in Trouble
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The 10-year Treasury yield was at 5.1% on November 12, 2026. At that level, a government bond pays real money with no stock risk at all, so every high-yield stock has a higher bar to clear. REITs and utilities have it worst. They borrow to grow, so every refinancing gets more expensive. Income investors can also leave for Treasuries and still collect a competitive rate, which pushes share prices down. A high yield is only as good as the company’s ability to keep paying it.
A dividend looks unsustainable when the right earnings measure doesn’t cover it, cash flow falls short, or rising debt pays for it. Seven warning signs that a big yield is about to be cut are laid out in a free report here.
Medical Properties Trust (MPW): A Yield Inflated by a Falling Stock
Medical Properties Trust (NYSE:MPW) pays $0.09 a quarter, or $0.36 a year. At $1.67 a share, that works out to a yield of about 21.6%. The hospital landlord even raised the payout from $0.08 in 2025.
The yield is high because the stock fell. Shares dropped 45.42% in the past month and 64.47% year to date. For a REIT, the right coverage measure is normalized FFO. Q3 NFFO came in at $0.11[1] a share, so the dividend used about 81.8% of it. That is covered on paper, but total NFFO fell to $63.82 million[1] from $77.21 million a year earlier. Tenant HSA missed its September rent, which cost two cents[1] of NFFO. Leverage is 8.7x[1] adjusted net debt to EBITDAre. Interest coverage was just 1.9x[2] in Q2, and the new $2.4 billion of secured notes carry a 9.25% coupon. Quarterly interest expense rose to $153.1 million[1] from $132.4 million.
The payout’s survival depends on the about $680 million[1] in asset-sale proceeds paying down debt, and cash rents exceeding management’s $1.0 billion target for 2027. What to watch: the next dividend declaration (last year’s came on November 17, 2025), HSA rent collections, and the revolver due December 30, 2026[1].
AGNC Investment (AGNC): Core Earnings Barely Cover the Payout
AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) pays $0.12 every month, or $1.44 a year. At $8.23, that is a yield near 17.5%, and the payout has held steady since 2020.
For a mortgage REIT, the right measures are spread income and tangible book value. Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.37[3], and the dividend took about 97.3% of it. The net interest spread narrowed to 1.86%[3] from 2.00% as cost of funds rose to 3.09%. Tangible book value fell 16.9%[3] to $7.13 a share, and $5.015 billion of unrealized MBS losses caused a GAAP net loss.
Leverage is 7.9x[3], and AGNC sold 97.6 million new shares through its ATM program. The stock still trades about 15.4% above book. AGNC cut its payout in 2020, from $0.16 to $0.12.
On the plus side, hedge coverage rose to 90%[3] from 73%, and Q2 delivered a 6.7% economic return. What to watch: whether book value keeps sliding as rates stay high.
Hawaiian Electric (HE): A Yield Screen Can Still Show a Payout That Stopped
Hawaiian Electric (NYSE:HE) raised its quarterly dividend steadily, from $0.31 to $0.36. The last check went out on September 8, 2023. Stale data can still flash that old payout at buyers.
Management was direct on the Q3 call: “Currently, we don’t pay a dividend.”[4] Core EPS fell to $0.13 from $0.19, hit by $13.7 million of storm costs. The second wildfire settlement payment is $479 million[4]. After prepayments, the company plans to fund the rest with debt or convertible debt, and that gets more expensive as Treasury yields rise. Shares are down 29.11% year to date.
The board “may revisit our dividend policy”[4] once finances improve. What to watch: the storm-cost deferral decision requested by December 15, 2026[4], and a ruling on the 5.3% rate increase in mid- to late April 2027.
Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN): A Serial Cutter Now Yielding Less Than Treasuries
Algonquin Power & Utilities (NYSE:AQN | AQN Price Prediction) declared $0.065 payable January 15, 2027. Trading at $5.60, it yields about 4.6%, which is below the 10-year Treasury. Its payout was $0.1808 in 2022 and $0.1085 in early 2024.
On earnings, coverage looks fine. The $0.26 annual payout is about 72% of the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.35 to $0.37[5]. Cash flow is tighter. Q3 operating cash flow of $187.8 million[6] trailed capex of $214.5 million. Algonquin carries about $6.5 billion[6] in long-term debt plus $564 million of commercial paper, and liquidity fell to $1,233.7 million. On the Lexington gas incident, it has recorded $159.9 million[6] in losses against $150 million of insurance.
Management expects “we will not need to issue equity through 2027.”[5] What to watch: the regulator’s vote on wildfire cost recovery set for November 19, 2026[6].
Yield Alone Never Makes the Case
When Treasuries pay 5.1%, an extended payout has less room for error. Dividend cuts usually drag shares down too, so a holder can lose income and principal at the same time. Before trusting any yield, check coverage on the right measure, the cash flow, and the debt load.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
