XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) holders have spent half a decade waiting for regulators to settle what the coin legally is. The SEC sued Ripple in 2020 and lost, the case was settled in 2025, and the SEC and CFTC classified XRP as a commodity in March. But that classification came from agencies, and the next administration could reverse it.
The CLARITY Act would write that classification into federal law, and it is now close to the Senate floor. Senator Cynthia Lummis said this week that the final text will arrive soon, Republican senators briefed President Trump at the White House on Thursday, July 16, and a vote is expected before the Senate leaves on August 7.
So if the CLARITY Act passes, how much will XRP be?
Where the CLARITY Act Stands Right Now
The House passed its version of the bill a year ago, in July 2025, by 294 votes to 134, with more than 70 Democrats voting for it. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its own version 15-9 in May, and the bill has been on the Senate calendar since June 1, eligible for a floor vote as soon as Senate leaders schedule one.
Six weeks later, they still haven’t, because there was still no final text to vote on. Two Senate committees, Banking and Agriculture, each wrote their own version, and negotiators have spent ten months merging them into one text. Lummis said this week that the text will arrive soon, which means the drafting is finally over and the only step left is the vote.
The Senate is expected to take it up the week of July 20, and it has until August 7 to get it done. That is when the Senate leaves for its summer recess, and if the bill hasn’t passed by then, it could lapse for the year as midterm elections take over.
Why the CLARITY Act Still Doesn’t Have the Votes
The CLARITY Act needs 60 votes to pass the Senate, which means at least seven Democrats have to vote for it. Only two have committed so far, Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, and both have said their committee votes don’t guarantee their support on the floor—republicans cannot pass this alone.
The fight is not over how to regulate crypto—which both sides have largely settled—but over an ethics provision that would stop senior government officials and their families from profiting off crypto businesses the bill would regulate. That language is aimed at President Donald Trump, whose financial disclosure showed roughly $1.4 billion in crypto income last year. Democrats say the current version doesn’t go far enough, and they are withholding their votes until it does.
Traders have priced the standoff, and the numbers moved the wrong way this week. Kalshi puts 79% odds on the Senate voting before the recess, but only 36% on the bill becoming law this year. Polymarket is at about 31%, its lowest of the year, and the odds fell after Trump publicly pushed for the bill.
What the CLARITY Act Changes for XRP
XRP already won its fight with the SEC, and regulators already classify it as a commodity. What a law adds is permanence. The SEC and CFTC made that classification in March, but an agency ruling only lasts as long as the administration behind it, and the next one could reverse it.
Institutions managing other people’s money can’t build on ground that changes every election. The CLARITY Act would write XRP’s classification and CFTC oversight into federal law, which no future agency can undo on its own.
The money waiting on that permanence is already visible. More than $1.4 billion has flowed into spot XRP ETFs since they launched last November, all without the law in place, and that flow has nearly stopped this month. Institutions bought the introduction, then paused at the uncertainty. Standard Chartered projects an additional $4 billion to $8 billion in ETF inflows could flow in when the bill passes, which is several times what the funds have gathered so far.
There is also a second catalyst behind the vote. Trump signed an executive order in May asking the Federal Reserve to open its payment systems to crypto firms, and to decide on completed applications within 90 days. Ripple is one of the firms in line, and a master account would let it settle through the Fed’s rails without going through an intermediary bank. The Fed has not said when it will rule, and the order asks rather than orders, since the Fed is independent.
How Much Will XRP Be if the CLARITY Act Passes?
XRP trades at $1.10 today. Where it ends the year largely depends on the bill progress, and on how much institutional money follows it in.
Bullish Prediction: $5
Standard Chartered had an $8 target for XRP this year, built on the spot ETFs pulling in $10 billion. The bank cut that prediction to $2.80 in February after inflows slowed. XRP reaching anything near the old forecast would take a few things happening.
The Senate would have to pass the bill, the Fed would have to grant Ripple its master account, and the ETFs would have to pull in several times more money than they have in eight months of trading. If all three happen, XRP could reach $5. We think that is unlikely before December, because each one has its own odds and none of them is settled.
Base Prediction: $3
If the Senate passes the bill before it leaves for recess on August 7, we think XRP could reach $2.50 to $3 by the end of the year, and that is close to Standard Chartered’s $2.80 prediction. From $1.10 today, it would be a 127% to 173% move, and it would take the institutional money that has been waiting on the sidelines to start buying once the rules can no longer be reversed.
Bear Prediction: Below $1
In a bearish scenario, which means the bill failing to pass this year, XRP goes back to trading on its own weak demand. If the vote fails, or the recess arrives without one, the bill is dead until Congress starts over, and the money waiting on the law keeps waiting. XRP already spent most of July trading near $1 for that exact reason, and without the bill, it could fall below a dollar again.
Will the CLARITY Act Pass Before the August Recess?
We expect the Senate to vote before it leaves on August 7. Whether the bill passes depends on the ethics language, and on whether Republicans can move it far enough to free seven Democratic votes in three weeks. Our read is that it leans against, because closed-door talks on that language broke down in early June and haven’t restarted since.
That points to the bearish outcome, with XRP trading near $1 into the autumn and the wait starting over next year. But at 35% odds, passage is not off the table, and holders will know which one they got within the next three weeks.
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