Polymarket’s CLARITY Act Odds Just Hit a Three-Month Low: Here’s What It Means for XRP

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading around $1.39, and its biggest catalyst of the year is slowly losing its momentum. Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act, a bill that would permanently lock in XRP’s legal status as a commodity, hit a new three-month low in late April.

In February, 82 out of every 100 Polymarket traders thought the CLARITY Act would pass. But in late April, the number dropped to 46 because the Senate kept pushing back the vote date, and nobody has put an actual date on the calendar yet. If you hold XRP, here’s exactly what changed and why this matters a lot this month.

Why Polymarket’s CLARITY Act Odds Dropped

Polymarket peaked at 82% passage odds on February 20 after the White House showed support and Senate negotiations appeared to be moving. By late April, those odds had fallen to 46%. The odds fell because the Senate hasn’t scheduled a date to vote, and every week it doesn’t, traders lose confidence that the bill will pass this year.

The odds of the CLARITY Act passing on Polymarket have continued to fall for three reasons. First, Senator Thom Tillis initially asked Committee Chairman Tim Scott to delay the markup to May, saying banks needed more time to address the stablecoin yield language. He has since reversed his position and is now pushing for the markup, but Tim Scott still hasn’t put a date on the calendar. 

Second, the Banking Committee spent April 21 on Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair confirmation hearing, using floor time that the CLARITY Act can’t recover. Third, the American Bankers Association has been running anti-stablecoin yield ads in Politico, a clear sign that opposition from industry players hasn’t fully subsided.

Each week of delay makes the passage of the bill in 2026 less feasible, especially with Memorial Day recess starting on May 21, and fewer than 10 working weeks before the October midterm recess. Senator Cynthia Lummis told the Bitcoin 2026 conference that missing this window means Congress waits until 2030.

Why Does the CLARITY Act Matter So Much for XRP?

Most of XRP’s regulatory wins in 2026 have a catch that most investors haven’t noticed. The commodity classification, ETF launches, and growing institutional interest are all connected to the potential passage of the CLARITY Act.

Permanence of XRP’s Commodity Status

On March 17, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity, shifting primary oversight to the CFTC. This classification was an interpretive release issued by regulators that another administration can reverse.

Banks, pension funds, and asset managers know this, which is why 65% of institutional investors in a Coinbase and EY-Parthenon survey of 351 money managers said regulatory clarity is the one thing holding them back from committing capital to XRP. The CLARITY Act would write that classification into federal statute, the only form of protection a future regulator can’t reverse.

Unlocking Institutional ETF Flows

XRP ETFs launched in late 2025 and pulled in $1.44 billion in assets before the CLARITY Act was anywhere close to law. This net inflow was impressive, but Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick projects an additional $4 to $8 billion in inflows once the bill passes, driven by institutional capital that currently won’t move without the CLARITY Act.

We think that the gap between $1.44 billion and $8 billion tells you everything about how much institutional capital XRP could still gain. A confirmed Senate markup alone would likely start moving the flows before the final vote even happens.

Ripple’s ODL Scalability

Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity product, which uses XRP as a bridge currency to settle cross-border payments in seconds, is live with tier-one banks like BBVA, DBS, and Intesa Sanpaolo.

Scaling ODL to tier-one balance sheets requires statutory protection. Banks will use XRP as a settlement rail when a federal law clarifies what it is—they won’t do it at scale based on a regulatory opinion that could change.

Does a Drop in Polymarket Odds Actually Affect XRP’s Price?

Polymarket traders have been pricing the CLARITY Act passage all year. Odds ran from 40% in January to 82% in February and back to 46% in late April, but the XRP price didn’t move much  during that period. Polymarket odds shift as people react to new information, so they don’t directly determine XRP’s price.

What they do reflect is what informed traders think will happen. The odd drop from 82% to 46% is a signal that people don’t think the bill will pass this year. If Tim Scott doesn’t schedule the markup within the next two weeks, XRP could lose its primary institutional catalyst and go back to being a Bitcoin-dependent altcoin with no independent narrative.

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