Bernstein Says $125,000 by December and Michaël van de Poppe Says a New High by January. Can Bitcoin Reach $125,000 by the End of 2026?
Bernstein and Michaël van de Poppe both see Bitcoin surging to historic levels within months, but the math and the calendar may have other plans.
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In a bold forecast, Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) could hit $125,000 by December 31, 2026. To reach this target, Bitcoin needs to climb around 45%. Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe anticipates a potential new all-time high in January 2027, requiring a rise of about 46%. These predictions are among the most optimistic Bitcoin price predictions for the final quarter of the year.
As of October 5, Bitcoin is trading at $86,093, up 8% over the last month but down 30% over the past year. This price is also 32% below its record of $126,080, set in October 2025. So, has Bitcoin ever made such a substantial leap in the fourth quarter, and does its history support these predictions?
Bernstein Ties Its $125,000 Bitcoin Target to the Four-Year Cycle
Analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, set the $125,000 target in a research note released in late August and also suggested a mid-2027 target of $150,000. Their predictions are based on three main factors:
- Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: Every four years, the Bitcoin halving reduces the number of new coins miners receive. Historically, Bitcoin’s price peaks about a year or more after each halving event. Bernstein believes the current cycle will peak in 2027, viewing the downturn since October 2025 as a temporary pause.
- Mining Costs: Miners’ expenses to generate new Bitcoin—such as electricity and equipment—are compared with Bitcoin’s market price to assess whether it is undervalued or overvalued.
- Currency Debasement: With governments printing more money, each dollar loses purchasing power. Many investors turn to assets with limited supply, like Bitcoin, to safeguard their investments, especially through spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Van de Poppe Expects a New Bitcoin High After a Possible 20% to 40% Drop
Michaël van de Poppe, the founder of MN Fund, offers a different outlook. In forecasts released on September 1, he expects Bitcoin to rise to at least $82,700, possibly reaching $90,000, before trading sideways for two to four months. This timeline suggests that new all-time highs may occur between November and January 2027.
Van de Poppe also said a typical bull market might see a 20% to 40% correction after reaching a recent peak, predicting such a decline could happen in September or October. Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,397 on September 21, surpassing his initial target, but the October timeframe is still uncertain.
If Bitcoin dropped 20% from $86,093, it would fall to about $68,900, requiring an 83% climb to hit the record. A 40% fall would lower it to roughly $51,700, necessitating a 144% increase to set a new high.
Bitcoin Has Gained 45% or More in Seven Fourth Quarters Since 2013
Data from CoinGlass reveals how Bitcoin’s performance in the fourth quarter has varied over the years:
- 2013: Up 480%
- 2014: Down 17%
- 2015: Up 81%
- 2016: Up 58%
- 2017: Up 215%
- 2018: Down 42%
- 2019: Down 14%
- 2020: Up 168%
- 2021: Up 5%
- 2022: Down 15%
- 2023: Up 57%
- 2024: Up 48%
- 2025: Down 23%
In seven of the past 13 years, Bitcoin has gained 45% or more in the fourth quarter. However, it has also lost value in five years. Notably, in the years when the quarter ended positively, the gains often exceeded 45%, suggesting that the forecasts align with Bitcoin’s typical performance during this time.
While the average return for the fourth quarter stands at around 77%, it has been significantly influenced by extreme gains in years like 2013 and 2017. The median return, which offers a more stable figure, is about 48%, slightly above what the current predictions require.
However, recent years show a weaker trend: Bitcoin gained only 5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, lost 15% in 2022, and dropped 23% in 2025, making it the second-worst fourth quarter on record after 2018. Bitcoin was much smaller as an asset in 2013, which allowed for sharper price movements.
Will Either Bitcoin Price Prediction Come True on Schedule?
While both predictions are historically possible, the timeline for achieving them looks challenging. Bitcoin needs a fourth quarter as strong as its median gain while grappling with a 30% decline over the year and just a few months remaining. Additionally, the correction van de Poppe allowed in October could undermine hopes for an immediate recovery by January.
If Bitcoin does not reach $125,000 by December 31, Bernstein’s year-end call will not materialize, though their mid-2027 target of $150,000 remains. Similarly, if Bitcoin doesn’t surpass $126,080 by the end of January 2027, van de Poppe’s timeframe for a new high will have closed as well.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
