Kraken’s Parent Company Plans U.S. Hyperliquid Perpetuals. Can HYPE Reach $100?

Hyperliquid (CRYPTO:HYPE) hovers around $95, marking a new peak—up 4.7% in 24 hours and 22.4% over the past 30 days. The current surge is largely driven by news from Payward, the parent company of Kraken, which announced plans to offer perpetual futures to U.S. clients on the Hyperliquid blockchain via Bitnomial, a regulated exchange by the CFTC.

However, this is only a proposal at this stage. Payward hasn’t disclosed a launch date, fees, specific contracts, or expected trading volume, and the plan is still awaiting regulatory approval. 

Nonetheless, HYPE has gained 18.5%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has risen 9.4% this week, now priced at $85,570. So what’s behind this excitement, and can the HYPE price actually hit the $100 mark?

Payward Is Building Markets on Hyperliquid, Not Listing HYPE Futures

It’s important to clarify what Payward is actually doing. They are not planning to launch futures specifically tied to the HYPE token. Instead, Payward aims to launch its own perpetual markets on Hyperliquid’s blockchain, leveraging the licenses it obtained through the acquisition of Bitnomial in May. The Bitnomial Exchange will create and manage these markets, while the Bitnomial Clearinghouse will settle transactions. This means U.S. traders will have access to a regulated leveraged product similar to what many crypto traders currently use outside the U.S.

Perpetual futures allow traders to speculate on a price without an expiration date, staying closely aligned with the underlying asset’s price through funding payments exchanged between long and short positions. In essence, Payward is creating a trading venue, while Hyperliquid provides the underlying infrastructure. However, a trading venue does not directly boost the demand for the HYPE token.

The Plan’s Only Link to the HYPE Price Is a $48 Million Stake

The only direct link between this plan and HYPE lies in the framework known as HIP-3. According to this rule, anyone establishing a market must stake 500,000 HYPE tokens. At $95, that amounts to about $48 million that Payward would need to lock up to launch its first contract.

This is the sole factor impacting HYPE’s demand related to Payward’s plans. The markets created would settle in U.S. dollars or other cryptocurrencies, not HYPE itself, meaning trading volume there won’t funnel money directly into the HYPE market. The $48 million stake is significant for HYPE holders. However, it’s a one-time requirement against a backdrop of daily trading volumes around $1 billion.

Thus, while this plan shows Kraken’s parent company is committed to buying a fixed amount of HYPE, it doesn’t ensure ongoing demand, which is crucial for the token’s price to reach $100.

Three-Quarters of HYPE’s Supply Has Not Reached the Market

For HYPE to hit $100, supply becomes a crucial factor. The current market cap is around $21.2 billion at $95, but the fully diluted valuation—assuming all 951.6 million tokens are in circulation—stands at about $91 billion. The difference represents the supply that’s yet to enter the market—about three-quarters of the total eventual distribution through team vesting, ecosystem rewards, and future allocations.

A low float works both ways. It explains why HYPE surged 18.5% on a news announcement that lacked specific details: fewer available coins can lead to larger price moves with less buying pressure. However, this also means that the current high price relies on scarcity that will diminish over time, as new tokens will eventually be unlocked and introduced into the market.

For the HYPE price to sustain $100 rather than simply reach it, buyers need to consistently support that price for both current coins and those set to release in the future. A one-time stake of $48 million doesn’t meet this ongoing need, and a U.S. exchange listing that deals in other cryptocurrencies may even let traders short HYPE the moment it becomes available for trading.

Can HYPE Break $100?

HYPE is only about 5% away from $100 and has shown it can move significantly in a single day. However, the recent spike also suggests that the market may have already priced in the impact of Payward’s plans, as shown by the recent 18.5% increase.

The challenge is that this proposal lacks a clear timeline, and the observed supply constraints cannot be ignored. If Payward were to officially announce a launch date and stake its 500,000 HYPE, that commitment would become visible on the blockchain, potentially establishing a price floor around $78. In summary, while hitting $100 is possible, it will require more than a one-time investment from Payward to maintain that level.

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