Can Uniswap Maintain Its Lead Over Ethereum Until October 19?
UNI has surged past Ethereum by a massive margin in 2026, but a CME futures listing set for October 19 could trigger the same brutal selloff that crushed Cardano and Chainlink before their own contracts launched.
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Uniswap (CRYPTO:UNI) is surging, up about 67% in 2026, while Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH), the blockchain on which Uniswap operates, is down about 9%. As of September 24, UNI is priced at $9.25 and ETH at $2,694, with the gap between the two cryptocurrencies growing most significantly in September.
In the past month, UNI has more than doubled, boasting an impressive 111.2% increase compared to ETH’s modest 7.9%. However, UNI fell sharply by 11.5% in a single day after reaching $10.93 on September 23. With CME Group planning to list UNI futures on October 19, the question arises: Can Uniswap maintain its lead over Ethereum through this upcoming listing?
Uniswap Doubled in a Month on an SEC Exemption and a CME Listing
Uniswap is a decentralized exchange that lets users swap tokens directly through software without an intermediary. UNI token holders use it to participate in governance decisions for the protocol.
On September 17, the SEC granted a five-year exemption that permits select venues to trade tokenized U.S. stocks on public blockchains. Uniswap’s permissioned pools, which only verified users can access, fit this regulation, leading to a surge in UNI’s value—an approximate 19% increase the following day.
Subsequently, on September 22, CME announced that UNI futures would begin trading on October 19. By then, UNI had skyrocketed from $5.84 at the beginning of September to $10.22 on September 22, reflecting a remarkable 75% increase within just three weeks.
While the fee switch—which allows Uniswap to use trading fees to buy back and burn UNI—contributes to long-term value, it did not drive the September price surge, as holders approved it on December 26, 2025, followed by a one-time burn of 100 million UNI.
The Last Coins CME Listed Fell More Than a Third Before Launch
CME had previously announced futures for Cardano, Chainlink, and Stellar on January 15, 2026. Before these contracts began trading on February 9, Cardano dropped by 35%, and Chainlink fell by 38%.
Futures contracts let institutions take a position on UNI’s price without holding the token, providing a regulated platform for speculation. Advance notice of the listing lets traders buy in early and potentially sell before launch.
UNI’s drop on September 24 aligns with this trend, as it fell from $10.93 to $9.25 in just one day, marking a 15% decline from its peak. Meanwhile, ETH only lost 1.7% during that time.
Uniswap Has to Fall About 45% Against Ethereum for the Gap to Close
With UNI up 67% while ETH is down 9%, a $1,000 investment in each cryptocurrency on January 1 is now worth about $1,670 in UNI and $910 in ETH. For the gap to close by October 19, UNI would need to drop about 45% against ETH, landing near $5, assuming ETH remains stable.
Even if UNI drops by a Cardano-like 35%, it would still fall to about $6.64 from its September 22 close, leaving it up about 20% for 2026.
Ethereum also faces its own challenges in October, as developers plan to trial the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Sepolia test network on October 6. So far, ETH has gained about 10.2% in the week leading up to September 24, showing signs of recovery.
Can the Gap Between Uniswap and Ethereum Hold Through October 19?
In conclusion, the yearly gap between Uniswap and Ethereum is likely to hold. UNI would need to lose nearly half its value against ETH in the next 25 days for the gap to close. However, the recent month-long surge is at risk, especially given that similar futures listings have led to significant price drops before launch.
For anyone who bought UNI close to $10, it could be a rough few weeks. If UNI falls below $7.79—its closing price on September 17 and 16% lower than its current price before October 19—it would indicate a complete reversal of the SEC-driven rally, making a drop like Cardano’s more probable. Conversely, if it stays above $8.86, its close on September 18, then UNI’s September gains may largely hold as the listing nears.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
