Solana Is Up 68% in Two Months and Nearly Back to Even for 2026. What Comes Next?
Solana has clawed back most of its 2026 losses in just two months, but a critical technical upgrade and a dramatic collapse in ETF inflows now put that recovery at a crossroads.
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Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) has seen an impressive 68% increase over the past two months, reaching a price of $124 as of September 27, 2026. This surge has brought Solana close to breaking even for the year, especially when compared to Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), which is down 3.7%, and Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH), down 9.3%. After such a significant rally, many are wondering: does Solana have the potential to keep climbing, or has the growth peaked?
Solana’s 68% Rally Came Almost Entirely in August and September
Most of Solana’s remarkable 68% rally occurred during August and September. The summer months saw little action, with Solana closing both June and July around $74. However, demand surged in August, pushing the price to a close of $103 and reaching a high of $111. By September, it climbed even further to $124. To put this into perspective, $1,000 worth of SOL bought at the July closing price is now valued at about $1,670.
With a 90-day increase of 70.6%, the 60-day gain of 67.8% shows that most of the movement happened more recently. This rise coincided with the SEC’s announcement on September 17 regarding an exemption for tokenized stocks, an area where Solana is a leader among blockchains.
In the past month, Solana has outperformed both Bitcoin, which only rose by 8.3%, and Ethereum, which rose by 10.2%. However, rapid rallies often attract momentum traders—those who buy based on rising prices—and they can exit just as quickly as they arrive.
Solana Still Trades Far Below Its January High After a Losing Year
While Solana’s near-flat year-to-date figure seems stable, it masks a difficult year overall. After hitting a low of $60 in June, SOL remains about 17% below its January peak of $149. Over the past year, Solana has experienced a significant drop of 40.5%, which is steeper than Bitcoin’s 23.2% and Ethereum’s 33% declines. This volatility means that anyone who invested a year ago is still facing losses.
Despite these challenges, a modest increase of about 2.7% would bring SOL to around $127 and turn its 2026 performance positive, presenting its first real test.
A Bigger Run Needs Billions in New Money and a Smooth Alpenglow Launch
Solana’s market value currently sits at approximately $73 billion, with around 588 million SOL in circulation. This means each $1 increase in SOL’s price requires about $588 million in new investment. As the supply continues to grow through staking rewards, the buying needed will only increase over time.
Solana represents about 2.5% of the total $2.91 trillion cryptocurrency market, indicating that for a sustained rally to occur, new money must flow into the crypto space or current holders must shift their assets into SOL. Fund inflows into Solana-related ETFs have cooled recently, with a staggering 96% drop in a single week in early September.
Calm market conditions can support growth; for instance, the VIX index, which measures expected stock market volatility, fell to 14.2 on September 22, down from 17.7 on September 16. Generally, readings below 15 can benefit more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.
Solana faces a crucial test on September 28, when the Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled to begin rolling out. This upgrade is set to dramatically reduce transaction confirmation times from around 12.8 seconds to just 150 milliseconds. However, Anza, the team behind Solana’s main validator software, described the launch date as tentative since it requires 95% of staked SOL to be running the new software.
What Comes Next for Solana After Its 68% Rally?
In the coming months, SOL is more likely to trade between its August closing price of $103 and its January high of $149, rather than breaking above this range. A late rally following a challenging year may appear to be a recovery bounce, and such recoveries often stall below previous highs.
Yet, a smooth Alpenglow launch and a return of ETF buying could drive SOL past $149, signaling the potential for a more significant run. Conversely, if the price dips below $103, it may surrender its September gains and drift back toward the July trading level of $74.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
