Can Quantum Computers Break Bitcoin? An Ethereum Researcher Just Told Big Holders to Prepare for Bunker Mode

Justin Drake, a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, advised the crypto community to “calmly begin planning for ‘bunker mode.'” This refers to a mass move of cryptocurrencies to new addresses that keep their public keys hidden. His warning sparked renewed interest in a pressing question for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) holders: can quantum computers break Bitcoin?

Interestingly, Drake’s concern isn’t directly about quantum computers. Instead, he highlighted the potential threat of artificial intelligence that can solve complex mathematical problems quickly, suggesting the danger may arrive in “months, not years.” Nonetheless, he reassured holders by saying there’s no need to panic or rush into decisions. So, how close are we to a breakthrough that could compromise Bitcoin’s security, and which cryptocurrencies are at risk?

Drake’s Warning Is About AI-Driven Math, Not Quantum Computers

Drake linked his concerns to OpenAI’s release of 722 mathematical papers generated by an internal AI model, proclaiming that “mathematical superintelligence is upon us.” He feared such models could find a new way to recover private keys from public keys using regular computers.

This threat could specifically target the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which Bitcoin uses to verify coin ownership. Michael Gutkin, vice president of research at crypto security firm Fireblocks, clarified that Drake’s scenario represents a “classical break,” not a quantum one. He added that no one has successfully demonstrated such an attack, and the likelihood of one remains a matter of debate.

Quantum computers are not yet capable of breaking Bitcoin’s security. Experts continue to debate when that might be possible, and Ethereum’s guidelines state that quantum machines currently cannot crack the network’s cryptographic measures.

About a Third of All Bitcoin Is in Addresses With Exposed Public Keys

Every Bitcoin wallet starts with a private key—a secret number only the owner should know. This private key becomes a public key, and a one-way process called hashing turns that public key into an address. While computers can easily derive the address from the key, Bitcoin’s security relies on preventing attackers from reversing the process.

Older addresses reveal the public key from the time they first received coins. Meanwhile, newer formats can keep the public key hidden until the owner makes a transaction. However, once a transaction occurs, the public key remains exposed. According to Project Eleven’s tracker, over 14 million funded Bitcoin addresses have visible public keys.

Gutkin estimates that around 6.7 million to 7 million BTC sit in these exposed addresses, about $550 billion to $580 billion at $82,462 per Bitcoin—roughly one-third of the total supply. Drake pointed out that attackers could target around 20,000 early addresses linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, each holding 50 BTC, for a total of about 1 million BTC valued at roughly $82 billion.

Bitcoin Needs a Protocol Upgrade Before NIST’s 2030 Deadline

A crucial deadline is approaching because of NIST, the U.S. agency that sets federal security standards. Gutkin noted that NIST plans to discourage current signature methods after 2030 and ban them after 2035. He emphasized that blockchains cannot adapt to such a significant change overnight.

Ethereum appears to have a head start in this area. A research team at Fireblocks reduced the cost of verifying a quantum-resistant signature on Ethereum from 8.09 million gas—its unit of computing work—to 1.23 million gas. However, this code is still pending an audit. Unlike Ethereum, Bitcoin lacks the flexible programming infrastructure needed for such upgrades, meaning it “ultimately needs protocol support,” according to Gutkin.

Bitcoin developers have proposed BIP-360, a solution that would create a new address type that hides its public key. While this change would “reduce long-term exposure,” Gutkin noted it is not a complete solution. Other networks, like XRP, are in a better position, claiming that merely 0.03% of their supply is vulnerable. Additionally, a sudden rush to move Bitcoin could overwhelm the network’s limited block space, resulting in higher fees and slower transaction confirmations.

Can Quantum Computers Break Bitcoin?

As of October 2026, quantum computers cannot break Bitcoin, and the AI-driven math shortcut Drake referred to remains unproven. Scheduled deadlines matter more than speculative threats, since NIST’s 2030 and 2035 deadlines give Bitcoin a limited window to upgrade to quantum-resistant addresses.

However, implementing these changes involves costs, especially since about 1 million BTC tied to Satoshi-era addresses can move only if the owners authorize a transaction. This means a voluntary migration could still leave those coins at risk. If a researcher successfully uncovers an ECDSA private key from a public key using existing technology, the so-called “bunker mode” could shift from being a precautionary measure to an urgent necessity. For now, Bitcoin developers advocating for BIP-360 or a similar upgrade will be the key indicators for long-term holders to monitor.

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