XRP Traders Are Leaning Long by Two to One, and Whales Have Stopped Sending Coins to Exchanges. One Analyst Says $1.38 Gets Tested Before Any Rally.

The XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) long-to-short ratio now stands at 2.32, according to the Bitrue Research Institute. This means that traders positioned for a price increase outnumber those positioned for a price drop by more than two to one.

At the same time, large XRP holders have been quiet on exchanges. As of October 12, 2026, XRP was trading around $1.39, down 7% over the past week but still up 40% over the last 60 days.

This situation is pulling the market in two different directions. A crowded long position could trigger a quick sell-off by leveraged buyers, while inactive whale investors—those who hold significant amounts of XRP—suggest they aren’t rushing to sell. A senior analyst at Bitrue anticipates that XRP might test the $1.35 to $1.38 range before a substantial rebound. So, which of these forces will prevail?

A Two-to-One Long Crowd Leaves XRP Open to a Drop

The long-to-short ratio compares traders with long positions, who benefit if prices rise, to those with short positions, who profit when prices fall. A reading above two suggests buyers significantly outnumber sellers.

This disparity presents a risk for XRP holders. Many of these long positions are leveraged, meaning traders borrow money to increase potential profits. If the price drops to a certain point, these leveraged positions can get liquidated—meaning the exchange automatically closes them—leading to further sell pressure on XRP. Essentially, if prices dip, the resulting forced sells can push XRP even lower, since liquidation levels tend to cluster just below the current price.

As longs build up around the current price, a slight dip might trigger a series of automatic sell-offs. Other indicators support this view: the taker buy volume—trading where buyers agree to the sellers’ asking prices—is around 68%. Bitrue’s team also notes that XRP’s momentum is neutral while volatility remains high, suggesting a lack of clarity in market direction despite heavy one-sided positioning.

Recently, XRP fell from $1.43 on October 11 to about $1.38 on October 12, with some of its highest trading volume during the decline.

XRP Whales Have Stopped Sending Coins to Exchanges

Unlike the crowded long positions, large XRP holders are acting differently. A “whale” refers to a wallet that contains a significant amount of XRP, and an “exchange inflow” is a transfer of coins onto a trading platform, usually indicating a planned sale. Over the last three months, whale inflows to centralized exchanges have dropped to about $61 million—the lowest since 2021.

At the same time, about 104.7 million XRP, valued at around $146 million, exited two centralized exchanges, with whales accounting for 82% of the outflows on September 29. Fewer coins entering exchanges and more moving out suggest large holders aren’t preparing to sell, making sustained price declines driven by new supply less likely.

However, this whale data has its limitations. Most trading happens within exchange order books and doesn’t hit the blockchain. A whale with coins on an exchange can sell without any new inflows. Outflows might also just be transfers to cold storage, a custodian, or over-the-counter desks, so they don’t necessarily indicate accumulation. Furthermore, the proportion of outflows from whales has decreased since September 29.

Slow ETF Demand Can’t Stop a Fast Liquidation

Both situations can coexist. A crowded long market can cause a sharp price drop even without whale selling, as selling pressure primarily comes from forced liquidations. While quiet whales alleviate some selling pressure, leveraged traders could still drive XRP lower.

Bitrue’s team highlights two additional support factors. U.S. spot XRP ETFs saw net inflows during more sessions than outflows in late September and early October. Additionally, Evernorth (NASDAQ: XRPN), a company established to hold XRP as a treasury asset, has begun trading on Nasdaq. Both developments add steady demand that can affect prices over several weeks, while a liquidation cascade can happen in hours.

Will XRP Test $1.38 Before It Rallies?

The crowded long positions may give way first, as even a small price dip could trigger forced selling. The Bitrue analyst describes the situation as a tug of war between “crowded leveraged longs and quieter whale activity.” XRP is still holding a rising support area established since the August rally, topping out at $1.38, less than 1% below its current price, and aligning with the rising 60-day moving average.

For XRP holders, the risk is that any potential rebound depends on traders who may be forced to sell when the price dips again. If XRP can hold at $1.38 while the long-to-short ratio moves closer to an even split, it could rise to $1.45-$1.50—about a 4% to 8% increase.

However, a daily close below $1.38, especially on increasing volume, could push the stock toward $1.32, about a 5% decline. Additionally, U.S. inflation data set to be released on October 14 could introduce volatility in either direction.

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