NEAR Doubled in a Month While Bitcoin Gained 7%. Is It Too Late to Buy the AI Coin?
NEAR Protocol just outpaced Bitcoin by a factor of 15 in a single month, but the rally is already showing cracks. Before buying in, investors need to understand the uncomfortable history behind what happens when this coin doubles.
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NEAR Protocol (CRYPTO: NEAR) has surged more than 107.3% over the past 30 days, more than doubling by October 14, 2026. By comparison, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) gained only 7.1% in the same period, making NEAR’s performance stand out. After such a surge, potential investors may wonder: Is it too late to buy NEAR?
Traders often categorize NEAR as an “AI coin,” a term for cryptocurrencies linked to artificial intelligence initiatives. However, this label reflects market sentiment and doesn’t necessarily reflect the amount of AI activity running on NEAR’s network, since specific data on that front isn’t currently available.
The recent rally appears to be losing steam. NEAR’s current trading price sits at $5.04, down 1.7% on the day and 2.5% over the week. With such a dramatic rise, does this cooling off mean that the price spike is finished?
Why NEAR’s 30-Day Gain Is Shrinking Faster Than Its Price
NEAR’s 30-day gain is decreasing rapidly. Just two days before October 14, the gain stood at 146.3%, then dropped to 124.8% a day later, and now it’s 107.3%.
While this decline may seem concerning, it mostly stems from how these percentages are calculated. A 30-day change uses a rolling window, so each new day is included while the oldest day drops out. As those massive gains from a month ago fade from the calculation, the percentage decreases even if the coin’s price remains relatively stable.
Over the last seven days, NEAR is down only 2.5%, a minor drop for such a volatile asset. Over the same period, Bitcoin has slipped 0.9%. Currently, NEAR’s percentage gain is falling faster than its price change.
NEAR Doubled in a Month Once Before. What Happened Next?
In the past, NEAR doubled in value in a month twice. The current increase marks the second time this has happened, with a remarkable 177.7% gain in September 2026.
The first occurrence was in August 2021, when NEAR rose 120.3%. Instead of crashing afterward, it kept climbing, gaining an additional 30.3% the following month and 64.8% over the three months after its August 2021 close.
Many investors are wary that such a doubling often leads to a sharp decline. However, in NEAR’s history, the only previous instance resulted in continued growth rather than a crash. That said, one example doesn’t establish a reliable pattern, so it’s unclear whether history will repeat itself.
Why NEAR’s 2026 Rally Looks Different From 2021
The 2026 rally is already behaving differently than the 2021 rally. Currently, NEAR is down 3.5% since its September month-end close, unlike the previous pattern, where a doubling led to significant price increases.
Moreover, analyzing monthly price changes doesn’t reveal the specific drivers behind each rally. Investor motivations, market sentiment, and overall crypto conditions could vary widely. Importantly, no clear event, partnership, or upgrade explains the September surge, leaving potential buyers unsure whether the momentum they’re banking on will continue.
NEAR still trades about 75.3% below its all-time high of $20.44, with a market cap of about $6.6 billion. The recent surge has only reclaimed part of a much larger drop. A jump from a significant low differs from a new high, as buyers may simply be trying to reclaim lost value.
Is It Too Late to Buy NEAR?
While NEAR likely has more upside, new investors would be stepping into a rally without a clear catalyst. Being 75% below its all-time high doesn’t automatically mean NEAR is undervalued; coins often decline for a reason, and those conditions may still be relevant. The 2021 performance and the rolling-window math both suggest that there could be more room for growth. However, these patterns only highlight past movements and leave NEAR’s future uncertain.
The most telling indicator will be the closing price at the end of October. If NEAR finishes the month above its September close, it could mirror the 2021 trend of continued growth after a doubling, solidifying a more stable rally. Conversely, if NEAR closes lower, it would mark a decline in the current uptrend, diverging from previous patterns in its history.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
