XRP Completes a Major Breakout Retest After Seven Years: What’s Next?
After seven years of compression, XRP finally retested a massive triangle breakout at a price level that could either launch it toward $3.80 or trap late buyers in a painful reversal. The answer lies in what happens next at $1.55.
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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has successfully completed the retest of a symmetric triangle that took seven years to form, reclaiming the $1.60 level on September 22, 2026. This marked its first time trading above this level since February 4. The measured move from this pattern suggests a potential target of around $3.80, a price XRP has reached before. Therefore, the recent XRP triangle breakout suggests a possible return to previous all-time highs rather than a new record.
Currently, XRP trades at $1.55, slightly below the reclaimed level, after a weekly gain of 10.4% and outpacing a monthly increase of 7.2%. While breakouts grab headlines, traders focus on the retest, which lets them assess whether the breakout is genuine. The retest is a crucial part of the pattern to evaluate.
The Triangle Ran From the $3.31 Peak of 2018 to the $0.98 Retest of August 2026
A symmetric triangle occurs when each rally peaks lower than the previous one and each decline bottoms higher, creating two trendlines that squeeze the price toward a point. The upper trendline acts as resistance, where sellers halt rallies, while the lower line serves as support, where buyers prevent price drops. A breakout occurs when price moves past one of these lines, and a retest follows, testing whether old resistance now serves as support.
XRP’s triangle formation began at its January 2018 peak of $3.31. The rally in April 2021 peaked at $1.96, hitting the upper trendline before XRP broke above it in November 2024, still below $1. After that breakout, XRP soared to a high of $3.65 in July 2025. However, a bear market that started in August 2025 pushed the price down to $0.98 by August 2026, where it touched the old trendline and bounced back.
This sequence of breakout, subsequent rally, pullback to the line, and recovery is the classic pattern. The move up to $1.60 on September 22 completed this sequence. The slight dip to $1.55 raises concerns, as closing back inside the triangle would suggest a false breakout and could trap late buyers.
The Measured Move Points Near $3.80, and XRP Already Went There Once
Traders often calculate a triangle target using a measured move by adding the triangle’s height from its widest point to the breakout level. The triangle was widest at the start, between the $3.31 peak of 2018 and the low of about $0.11 in March 2020, for a height of about $3.20.
Adding this height to a breakout level around $0.60 in November 2024 gives a target of about $3.80, a potential increase of around 145% from the current price.
However, a couple of cautions remain. First, the triangle is wide, as a seven-year pattern is broad. A small change in the highs or lows used to define it can significantly alter the target. Different analysts may draw the same triangle differently, which can affect interpretations of price movement. The $3.80 target is just one possible outcome based on a specific drawing.
The second caution is related to XRP’s recent performance. After the breakout, XRP’s first rally peaked at $3.65, nearly reaching the calculated target before the retest started. Additionally, a breakout might be driven by short sellers covering their positions, which can look similar to long-term buyers jumping in.
ETF Inflows Back the Chart, and Underwater Holders Stand in Front of It
A solid piece of evidence reinforces the chart’s outlook. U.S. spot XRP ETFs saw inflows of about $75.6 million from September 22 to 25, according to SoSoValue. This influx of cash needed to purchase XRP provides stronger support than any drawn trendline. While four days of inflows are a positive beginning, a reliable upward trend typically requires consistent inflows over weeks.
However, selling pressure also exists above the current price. Santiment’s one-year MVRV for XRP shows around-11.8%, indicating that the average buyer over the past year is at a loss. These underwater holders may sell as the price approaches their purchase levels, creating resistance between $1.55 and the levels projected by the pattern.
Two significant events are approaching, adding context to the retest. The Batch amendment, an upgrade to the XRP Ledger that will bundle multiple transactions, is expected around late September. Additionally, Ripple’s scheduled escrow release on October 1 may introduce further supply, which traders will monitor closely to see how much Ripple decides to relock.
Does the Seven-Year Retest Change XRP’s Trajectory?
The retest adds credibility to the breakout but doesn’t guarantee it will reach the target. With a measured move indicating a target near $3.80 and XRP having previously approached that level within 4%, the journey back will involve numerous buyers who bought XRP at higher prices and may choose to sell near break-even.
The risk associated with this pattern is that a failed retest could cause more damage than a non-breakout. Traders who bought during the breakout might quickly become sellers if price drops below the critical levels, increasing volatility.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
