Solana’s Biggest Upgrade in Years Draws Closer. Ethereum Fell After Two of Its Last Three Upgrades. Could Solana Avoid the Same Trap?

Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) is approaching a crucial event. Anza, a core developer of the network, announced on October 13, 2026, that the eagerly awaited Solana Alpenglow upgrade will go live on the mainnet on October 21. This upgrade will replace the current voting system with a certificate-based consensus, aiming to significantly speed up transaction finality.

Solana is trading at $107, down 9.8% over the past week but up 5.3% over the last 30 days. Despite these gains, the coin remains 63.5% below its all-time high of $293.

However, investors have reason to be cautious. Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) fell 30 days after two of its last three major upgrades. So, can Solana avoid a similar decline?

Alpenglow Aims to Reduce Finality Time to About 150 Milliseconds

Finality refers to the point when a transaction can no longer be reversed. Currently, on Solana, this takes several seconds, but Alpenglow aims to cut it to around 150 milliseconds—a fraction of a second. This speed is crucial for scenarios like card payments, where vendors want immediate confirmation that funds have transferred before the customer leaves.

Validators, the computers responsible for confirming transactions, currently participate in an on-chain voting process. With Alpenglow, certificates will replace this voting, providing compact proof that enough validators have agreed on a block.

An interesting side effect of this change is that the current voting process inflates Solana’s reported activity. After the upgrade, while the network may run more efficiently, the reported transaction count could drop because voting transactions are removed.

Ethereum Fell 30 Days After Two of Its Last Three Upgrades

Examining Ethereum’s most recent upgrades provides some insight. Here’s a quick summary of its last three major upgrades.

Ethereum’s price fell 30 days after both The Merge and Dencun. However, there isn’t a definitive pattern, as the circumstances surrounding each upgrade varied. Investors typically know about an upgrade well in advance and buy in anticipation, but once the upgrade rolls out, they have less motivation to keep buying, so some take profits, causing price dips.

With Pectra, the story was different. Ethereum’s price was lower before the upgrade, reducing the incentive for investors to sell afterward and leading to a price uptick 30 days later.

Solana’s Fund Outflows Make Its Setup Look More Like Pectra

Currently, Solana’s situation leading up to Alpenglow seems more like Pectra than Dencun. This is because fund investors have been selling off their holdings. According to SoSoValue, Solana-related exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw net outflows on eight of the nine trading days in October, including a notable $1.04 million outflow on October 13. On top of that, Solana has dropped by 9.8% over the past week.

This lack of pre-upgrade buying, typically associated with price increases, creates a different dynamic. If fewer investors accumulate Solana ahead of the upgrade, there could be less selling pressure afterward, which might reduce the chance of a significant price drop after Alpenglow’s launch.

However, consistent fund outflows may indicate underlying doubt. If major investors are selling despite knowing the upgrade date, it could suggest they have little confidence in Alpenglow’s impact on the coin’s value.

Can Solana Dodge a Price Slump After Alpenglow?

In our view, Solana might have a better chance of avoiding a slump after the Alpenglow upgrade than Ethereum did following The Merge and Dencun. The usual pre-upgrade buying that often leads to post-upgrade sell-offs appears to be missing this time. Solana’s current setup more closely resembles the situation before Pectra.

That said, the upgrade alone is unlikely to drive price movement. Continuous selling pressure could still weigh on Solana’s value.

Ultimately, much will depend on the timing and fund flows. The Alpenglow upgrade needs to successfully launch on October 21, as any delays would reset the timeline. Additionally, if fund outflows continue and Solana remains below $107 thirty days post-launch, it may follow Ethereum’s pattern. Conversely, a close above $107, with signs of fund inflows returning, could indicate that Solana successfully navigated the potential post-upgrade dip.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.