Solana or Ethereum: Which Is More Likely to Be a Millionaire-Maker by 2030?
Early Solana and Ethereum investors turned small bets into life-changing fortunes, but both coins now sit far below their peaks with ETF outflows mounting. The path to another millionaire-making run by 2030 requires clearing very different hurdles for each.
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Investors often call Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) millionaire-makers because of the fortunes early adopters made. Since April 2020, SOL has surged by approximately 15,000%, while ETH has skyrocketed about 19,800% since October 2016.
However, recent trading has proven more challenging. As of October 19, 2026, SOL trades at $106, and ETH at $2,431, after weekly declines of 6.2% for SOL and 5.5% for ETH. Over the past month, SOL has dipped 5.6%, and ETH has fallen 7.5%.
This puts SOL 64% below its all-time high of $293 from January 2025 and ETH 50.8% below its peak of $4,946 from August 2025. In October, SOL has fluctuated between $100 and $124, while ETH ranged from $2,313 to $2,777. So, when considering which cryptocurrency has a realistic chance of turning a modest investment into $1 million by 2030, we need to break down the numbers.
What 10x and 100x Gains Would Make Solana and Ethereum Worth
To turn a $10,000 investment into $1 million, the asset needs to rise 100x, or 10x to reach $100,000. Market cap, which is the coin’s price multiplied by the number of coins in circulation, helps us gauge what each target requires.
| Level | SOL Price | SOL Market Cap | ETH Price | ETH Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $106 | $62.3 billion | $2,431 | $297 billion |
| 10x | $1,056 | $623 billion | $24,311 | $2.97 trillion |
| 100x | $10,561 | $6.23 trillion | $243,109 | $29.7 trillion |
A tenfold increase for SOL seems more attainable than for ETH, but it would still be a significant challenge. Solana would need to surpass its previous high and achieve a market cap larger than Ethereum’s current valuation of around $297 billion.
Ethereum, by contrast, would need to reach a $2.97 trillion market cap to hit its tenfold target, all while never having traded above $4,946. A hundredfold rise seems nearly impossible this decade, with SOL needing a $6.23 trillion market cap and ETH requiring an extraordinary $29.7 trillion.
One hurdle for SOL is its supply growth. Currently, about 589.4 million SOL are in circulation out of a total supply of 636 million. This gives it a fully diluted valuation (what it would be worth if all tokens were in circulation) of $67.2 billion. As locked tokens are unlocked, a price of $1,056 could correspond to a market cap exceeding $623 billion. In contrast, ETH’s circulating and total supply are about 122.1 million.
Solana’s Alpenglow Upgrade Goes Live on October 21
On October 21, Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade will go live, aiming for transaction finality in just 150 milliseconds—the point at which a transaction cannot be reversed. Though ambitious, its effectiveness will depend on real network conditions.
Alpenglow will replace the TowerBFT validator voting system that Solana has used since its 2020 launch. It will move validator votes off-chain, which could reduce Solana’s reported transaction count without affecting user activity. This speed improvement could enable faster merchant transactions and more efficient cross-chain payments.
Ethereum and Solana ETFs Are Both Seeing Outflows
Both Solana and Ethereum ETFs have recently experienced outflows. Ether ETFs, which hold ETH on behalf of stock market investors, have seen redemptions for three consecutive weeks. According to DWF Labs, total net inflows dropped from $13.96 billion on September 28 to $12.94 billion on October 16, closely tracking ETH’s price movements.
Similarly, Solana ETFs saw cumulative inflows decline, peaking at $1.62 billion on September 29 and falling to $1.56 billion by October 16. All sessions from October 14 to 16 reported outflows, culminating in a $12.7 million exit.
Is Solana or Ethereum More Likely to Be a Millionaire-Maker by 2030?
While both cryptocurrencies face challenges in turning $10,000 into $1 million by 2030, Solana appears to have a better chance at achieving the tenfold $100,000 target. Reaching a $623 billion market cap is a more realistic goal than Ethereum’s $2.97 trillion target. SOL’s success hinges on a smooth Alpenglow launch, renewed ETF inflows that lift the total back above $1.62 billion, and a recovery past its $124 October high and $293 record.
If the Alpenglow upgrade falters and ETF selling persists, SOL could drop back to its June low of $60, while ETH may revisit its June low of $1,505 if outflows continue for a fourth consecutive week. A monthly close above $124 by December could strengthen the case for a tenfold increase, while a close below $100 would diminish those prospects.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
