Monero Price Prediction: XMR Is Now 19% From Its Record High. Can It Get There by Year-End?
Monero just posted a massive weekly gain and now sits closer to its all-time high than Bitcoin does to its own record, but a familiar danger signal from January is flashing again.
Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) is trading about 19.7% below its all-time high of $798, reached on January 14, 2026. After a significant 19% gain over the past week, XMR sits around $641 as of October 22, up 7% in the last 24 hours. This upward move puts the record price in focus for any Monero price predictions through the end of the year.
Some optimistic traders are even targeting $5,000 for XMR. However, the more immediate question is whether XMR can reach a new all-time high before December 31.
Monero Needs a 24.5% Gain to Break the Record
To surpass its previous peak of $798, XMR needs to gain approximately 24.5%. Since it hit that price in January, some buyers have already accepted that level. Notably, XMR is currently closer to its record than Bitcoin, which remains around 35% below its high.
Monero’s market value is calculated by multiplying its price by the total circulating supply. This supply is continually increasing through a process called tail emission, which gives miners a small, ongoing reward with each block they create. As a result, more XMR tokens are in circulation now than in January.
For XMR to return to $798, the market would need to tolerate a new, higher valuation than it did during its record-setting period.
While this reward adds less than 1% to the total supply each year, it implies buyers must invest more to reach each new high. Additionally, the January 2026 peak didn’t hold for long.
Rising Privacy Demand and Futures Trading Boost XMR
Monero is known as a privacy coin, meaning it conceals the sender, receiver, and amount of every transaction by default. Analysts attribute the recent price increase to a chart breakout, increased futures trading activity, and growing demand for privacy coins. Notably, in the week ending October 17, Monero outperformed Zcash.
Most of the buying momentum came in recent days. The 19% gain over the past week is higher than the 13.1% increase over the entire month, suggesting XMR traded about 5% lower a week ago than a month ago. While this rally shows some promising momentum, it is still relatively new.
Futures trading lets traders bet on a coin’s price movement without owning it, and they can use borrowed funds to amplify their positions. Data from October 21 shows that leverage in Monero futures has been increasing again, part of a broader trend in altcoin futures trading. This pattern resembles the buildup before Monero’s sharp January decline.
This leverage can cause significant price swings. If XMR climbs, traders with short positions may need to buy back coins to cover their losses, potentially creating a buying frenzy known as a short squeeze. Conversely, if XMR falls, exchanges may automatically close long positions, resulting in rapid selling that can turn a small dip into a steep decline.
XMR Must Reclaim $650 to Maintain Its Momentum
After briefly surpassing $650 to reach a nine-month high, XMR has returned to around $641. For a breakout to be valid, the price must consistently hold above previous resistance levels, which in this case is $650.
If XMR can return above $650—about 1.4% higher than its current price—and hold it, it could establish a new support zone where buyers are likely to step in. However, if it fails to do so, $650 could become resistance, making the $798 record even harder to reach.
What Is Our Monero Price Prediction for Year-End?
Our assessment suggests that XMR will likely fall short of setting a new all-time high before December 31. While a 24.5% increase in about 10 weeks is achievable for a coin that just gained 19% in a single week, the resurgence of leverage seen prior to the January crash raises concerns. This factor has already hampered one Monero rally in 2026.
The immediate test will be whether XMR can reclaim and hold the $650 level throughout November. If it does, with spot buying leading the way and futures leverage declining, the chances of surpassing $798 by year-end could improve. Conversely, if the price drops back below $650 while leverage continues to grow, we might see a sell-off similar to January, keeping the record intact heading into 2027.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
