Has XRP Bottomed? We Asked Claude AI Where the Selling Stops
XRP has shed over 60% from its all-time high, and now a key support level sits between holders and a potentially painful drop toward $1.00. Claude AI ran the numbers, and the odds of a clean hold may surprise you.
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Has XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) finally bottomed out? According to Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, there’s a 40% chance that XRP’s low of $1.25 from October 18, 2026, marks the cycle’s bottom. If this level fails, Claude suggests that selling could slow around $1.12.
XRP is trading at $1.31 after a 12.1% drop this month, about 64% below its all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025.
However, there is a silver lining: the recent lows are trending upward, with XRP holding a higher low of $1.28 during the week of October 19. This raises the question: Has XRP truly found its floor, or can sellers still drive the price lower?
XRP’s $83 Billion Valuation Covers More Tokens
XRP’s market cap stands at $83.2 billion, making it the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, ahead of Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), which has a market cap of $61.8 billion.
Many investors overlook XRP’s supply side. Currently, around 63.13 billion XRP are in circulation out of a total cap of 100 billion. This means that XRP’s fully diluted valuation — which accounts for every possible token that could exist — is about $131.8 billion.
Ripple holds a significant portion of the uncirculated supply in escrow and releases tokens gradually over time. As the circulating supply grows, each price level requires more investment to maintain than in previous cycles. Therefore, maintaining a floor at $1.25 in October 2026 will require accounting for a larger supply than in earlier years.
Over the past year, XRP has underperformed its peers, dropping 44.9% while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) fell 25.2% and 37.8%, respectively.
ETF Inflows and Record Wallets Haven’t Stopped XRP’s Decline
Recently, spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold XRP and let investors buy shares through a broker saw inflows of about $708,500 on October 21 and $3.55 million on October 22, according to SoSoValue. Total net inflows reached $1.80 billion by October 22, with net assets at $1.49 billion.
However, these inflows appear to have limited impact. On September 25, the funds recorded their largest inflow of the past month, $22.6 million, which temporarily lifted XRP to $1.63. But by October 23, XRP had fallen from $1.50 on September 23 to $1.31, and the funds had a $2.47 million outflow on October 16. Although these inflows could potentially slow selling, they are unlikely to reverse the trend.
Moreover, the XRP Ledger now boasts a record 8.24 million non-empty wallets, according to Santiment. This growth in wallet numbers may indicate a broader holder base, yet it has coincided with a 28.8% decline this year, suggesting that wallet growth hasn’t halted the price drop.
Additionally, central banks in Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are expanding a cross-border stablecoin initiative that includes Ripple, Visa (NYSE: V | V Price Prediction), and Mastercard (NYSE: MA). However, Ripple’s specific role and any direct use of XRP remain unclear, so Claude considers this news only in the most optimistic projections rather than relying on it for forecasts.
Claude AI Projects XRP’s Selling to Slow at $1.12
Claude emphasizes that $1.25 is XRP’s crucial support level. If XRP closes below $1.25, it could quickly drop to $1.15. Claude predicts sellers may lose momentum in the $1.10 to $1.15 range, roughly 15% below the current price, with $1.00 as the next major reference point. The model estimates a 20% chance of a drop below $1.00.
For December 31, 2026, Claude’s scenarios range from $0.95 in the bear case to $1.45 in the base case and $2.10 in the optimistic bull case.
Has XRP Bottomed at $1.25, or Is More Selling Ahead?
XRP may not have fully bottomed yet. Claude sees the coin as near a bottom but not confirmed, estimating a 55% chance it trades below $1.25 before the end of 2026, making a retest more likely than a clean hold.
A confirmed bottom could follow a specific pattern: first, XRP needs to recover its 20-day average of $1.37, then close above its 50-day average of $1.41, and finally achieve a weekly close above $1.45. If XRP closes above $1.45 on a weekly basis, it would suggest the bottom is likely in. Conversely, a daily close below $1.25 would bring the $1.12 area back into focus.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
