Solana Price Prediction: Where Could SOL Be by the End of October?

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) is priced at $105, and it needs a 12.7% increase to close the month at its opening price of $118. Buyers have only eight days left to do that. Throughout October, SOL has stayed just above the critical $100 mark, which buyers have defended all month. It is currently down 12% since the beginning of the month.

Earlier in October, SOL hit a high of $124 on October 2 but fell to a low of $100 by October 18. The week of October 19 offered some relief as buyers stepped in, holding SOL above a weekly low of $103. So, can SOL reach $118 again by the end of October?

SOL Has to Clear Two Moving Averages to Get Back to $118

To climb back to $118, SOL must overcome two significant moving averages. Its first support level is the monthly low of $100. If it drops from $105 to that level, that would be a 4.2% decline.

On the upside, SOL faces resistance at its 20-day moving average of $109 and its 50-day moving average of $110. Historically, sellers tend to appear around these levels, so SOL needs to break through. It needs to increase by 4.7% to surpass the 50-day average and 12.7% to return to its initial price of $118.

The downward trend began on October 8, when SOL opened at $116 and closed at $110 amid heavy trading volume. Since then, the price has not closed above $111.

Solana’s Alpenglow Upgrade Failed to Lift the SOL Price

A significant development for Solana is the Alpenglow upgrade, its most extensive consensus update since the network launched in 2020. This upgrade enhances how validators confirm valid transactions, widening Solana’s speed lead over competitors like Ethereum.

The upgrade, which launched on October 21, cut Solana’s transaction finality time to just 150 milliseconds. Despite this improvement, SOL’s price fell to $104 on October 22 as the broader crypto market weakened.

Solana ETFs Took In Money on Just Two Days in October

Solana’s spot ETFs have also seen movement, buying SOL directly when investors invest. However, from October 19 to 22, U.S. Solana ETFs faced net outflows of $17.3 million. Their total net assets as of October 22 stood at $1.61 billion, and cumulative net inflows since launch fell to $1.54 billion.

October has been challenging for the ETFs, reporting net inflows on only two days—October 2 and October 21. The latter brought in a modest $585,000. In contrast, back on September 25, the funds took in $86.7 million during a run of inflow days, and SOL closed September at $118. Larger inflows like that could give SOL the support it needs to move above its moving averages.

Where Could SOL Be by the End of October?

Given current conditions, SOL is unlikely to finish October above its $118 open. A 12.7% rally in the final days of the month would require a strong catalyst, which hasn’t materialized yet, especially as recent ETF flows have been negative. A more realistic closing range for October 31 seems to be between $100 and $110.

To reach the higher end of that range, SOL must maintain its $100 monthly low and close above the $110 50-day moving average as ETF inflows hopefully shift back to positive. If SOL can close above $111, we might see $118 become attainable again. Conversely, if it closes below $100, that could signal a weaker end to the month, with $100 potentially shifting from support to resistance.

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