Solana’s Alpenglow Upgrade Is About to Go Live. Is SOL a Better Buy Than XRP?
Solana's biggest network overhaul in years goes live October 21, promising near-instant transaction finality, yet ETF investors keep pulling money out. Before the upgrade hits, one of these two coins is flashing signs of deeper trouble than the other.
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The highly anticipated Alpenglow upgrade for Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), the network’s most significant change in years, is set to go live on October 21, 2026. As this milestone approaches, Solana has seen an 11.1% drop in its price through October 19, currently trading at $104. Remarkably, this marks a 16% decline for the year so far, with its lowest daily close of the month at $103 on October 17.
According to the Solana Foundation’s upgrade page, the Alpenglow upgrade will activate on the mainnet during epoch 1064, starting on October 21 at approximately 1:20 p.m. UTC, though other estimates citing developer Anza put it closer to 2:50 p.m. UTC. This upgrade aims to cut transaction finality from about 12.8 seconds to just 150 milliseconds. For users, this could mean payment confirmations feel instant, and transactions become final much faster.
In comparison, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has faced a tougher month, trading at $1.29 after a 12.5% drop through October 19. With the Alpenglow upgrade approaching, which of these two coins offers a more promising investment opportunity?
Forced Selling and ETF Exits Drove SOL’s October Slide
SOL posted its biggest decline on October 8, opening at $116 and closing at $110, the day with the month’s highest trading volume. This drop coincided with a decline in Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) price, triggering a wave of liquidations across the market. Additionally, rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions added pressure to the crypto sector, with Solana leading the decline among major coins.
A liquidation occurs when a trader uses borrowed funds and the asset’s price falls enough to wipe out their collateral, resulting in the exchange automatically closing their position. On the day SOL dropped sharply, most liquidations hit long positions, which profit when prices rise. Each forced sale pushes the price lower, which can trigger the next one. This chain reaction is often called a liquidation cascade.
After this event, fund investors kept selling. Solana-focused ETFs, which hold SOL directly, recorded a net outflow of $6.7 million on October 19. They have seen outflows every session since October 5, with the largest exit on October 16, totaling $12.7 million.
While one might expect buyers to increase their exposure before a significant upgrade, ETF investors have been pulling back. Nonetheless, cumulative net inflows since the ETFs’ launch still stand at $1.55 billion, indicating strong initial buying despite the recent outflows.
SOL Has Outperformed XRP Over Every Time Frame
Over the past months, SOL has outperformed XRP across various time frames. Although both coins are down this month, SOL has experienced a smaller decline, and its relative strength increases when looking back further:
| Asset | One Week | One Month | 60 Days | 90 Days | Year to Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL | -2.1% | -6.0% | 11.5% | 34.1% | -16.0% |
| XRP | -5.1% | -8.1% | -10.9% | 13.5% | -29.6% |
| BTC | -1.9% | 0.4% | 4.1% | 23.4% | -6.8% |
| ETH | -4.1% | -9.5% | -4.9% | 23.8% | -19.3% |
On October 19, SOL gained 0.9%, while XRP fell below its previous-day close. Traders also defended the $100 mark for SOL, which dipped to about $100 on October 15 and again on October 18, but recovered above $103 by the end of both days.
In contrast, XRP looks weaker, hitting a monthly low of $1.25 on October 18, with its last close above $1.40 on October 11. Furthermore, XRP witnessed its highest trading volume during sell-offs, including on October 8, when SOL experienced its steepest drop. However, XRP still has a larger market value, currently $81.6 billion, compared to SOL’s $61.2 billion.
SOL has also outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) over the past 90 days. This upward trend coincided with Alpenglow upgrade milestones, including devnet activation on September 25. Traders now have a specific upgrade date, which may influence their positioning. While the data doesn’t conclusively show the upgrade spurred buying, XRP’s weaker performance than Bitcoin over 60 days suggests deeper issues beyond the broader market trend.
Alpenglow Might Not Lift SOL Right Away
The Solana Foundation first shared information about the Alpenglow upgrade in June 2026, giving traders plenty of time to factor it into their market strategies. Upgrades often lead to selling as early investors take profits once the upgrade goes live.
SOL’s relative strength will also depend on a smooth activation, which requires validators—the computers that execute transactions on Solana—to run an Agave-based client before epoch 1064. This is crucial because Firedancer will not be supported during the upgrade. Rotor, the upgrade’s second phase, also has no set date yet.
Is SOL a Better Buy Than XRP Before the Solana Alpenglow Upgrade?
Considering all factors, SOL appears to be the stronger investment option. It has fallen less than XRP in October, maintained positive performance over 60 days, and has a clear catalyst in the Alpenglow upgrade. However, both coins are significantly down, with SOL down 44.9% and XRP down 48.1% over the past year.
SOL’s outlook may improve if Solana ETFs see their first net inflow after Alpenglow activates on October 21. If outflows continue through the end of October, the upgrade likely did not bring in new money. XRP could turn with a daily close back above its 20-day moving average, the average closing price of the last 20 sessions, which would show buyers regaining short-term control.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
