Solana Price Prediction: Can SOL Hold $100? What Breaks It?

This month, Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) bounced back from the $100 mark twice, confirming this level as a key support level for SOL. Currently, SOL trades near $104, reflecting a 2.4% decline over the past 24 hours and a 9.2% drop so far this month.

Both instances of holding above $100 occurred days apart, with SOL hitting a low slightly above $100 on October 15 and again on October 18, attracting buyers each time. However, after Solana’s major technical upgrade launched on October 21, SOL didn’t rally as expected; instead, it slid back down.

So, can SOL hold above $100, and what factors could push it below this level?

SOL Trades Well Below Its All-Time High and Key Averages

SOL is about 64% off its all-time high of roughly $293, achieved in January 2025. Long-term, SOL has faced significant losses: down 42.1% from $180 on October 22, 2025, and 47.1% from $197 on October 23, 2021.

On a brighter note, the short-term perspective is more favorable. Over the last 90 days, SOL has risen 41.2%, climbing from $74 on July 24, 2026. However, this surge left many holders with profits to take once the upgrade went live, which may explain the recent sell-off.

Understanding price momentum can be aided by the moving averages—average closing prices over specific periods. SOL’s 20-day and 50-day moving averages cluster around $110, with SOL trading below them, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand.

If SOL falls below $100, the next support level to watch is around $95, where buyers stepped in on August 23, 2026. Below that, $74 marks the July low, which kicked off the summer rally.

SOL Fell After the Alpenglow Upgrade Went Live

The Alpenglow upgrade, developed by Anza, a Solana firm, introduced a new consensus mechanism that improved transaction validation speed. After Alpenglow went live on Solana’s mainnet on October 21, transaction finality was reduced to about 150 milliseconds. This means transactions become irreversible almost instantly after the upgrade.

Despite this positive development, SOL’s price fell. After hitting $109 on October 21, it dropped 5.2% to around $103 the next day, driven by broader market stress, a classic “sell-the-news” scenario in which traders take profits after a highly anticipated event.

Solana ETFs Snapped Their Outflow Streak, but Only Barely

On October 21, Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which hold SOL and function like stocks, saw a modest inflow of about $585,000. This slight uptick broke a streak of daily outflows that started on October 5.

Yet, a single good day doesn’t significantly change the broader trend. Five days earlier, on October 16, these funds withdrew $12.7 million. Overall, cumulative net inflows fell from $1.61 billion on October 2 to $1.55 billion by October 21, indicating net outflows of $59.1 million in under three weeks.

Interestingly, these funds had previously seen consistent inflows for 14 weeks before the recent outflows, with a standout day on September 25 when they collected $86.7 million, coinciding with a 4.4% rise in SOL’s price.

Rising Yields and Market Volatility Hit SOL Harder Than Bitcoin

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of expected stock market fluctuations, was 17.3 on October 20, up 13.4% in a week, after nearly reaching the 20 mark on October 16, which usually signals market stress.

Rising bond yields further contribute to SOL’s struggles. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.1% on October 20, nearing its recent high of 5.3% from October 5. Higher yields make bonds more appealing, prompting investors to pull funds from more speculative assets like SOL.

The broader market took a hit, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) down 2.0% over 24 hours to around $81,800 and Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) down 2.6%. Mixed U.S. tech earnings raised investor concerns, and approximately $430 million in leveraged positions were liquidated.

However, SOL fell 9.6% over the past month, while Bitcoin dropped 2.3%, suggesting SOL tends to suffer more during periods of heightened fear.

Can the Solana Price Hold Above $100?

In the short term, we believe SOL is likely to stay above $100, but the margin is slim. Buyers defended this level twice this October, and the October 21 inflow ended a period of withdrawals.

For SOL to regain upward momentum, it will need to reclaim $110, where its moving averages converge, and see several consecutive days of ETF inflows before a return to the $122 close from September 25 becomes plausible.

On the downside, a daily close below the October 18 low of $100.32 would break this critical support level. Combined with continued ETF outflows or a VIX reading above 20, such a break could push SOL toward $95. While the Alpenglow upgrade could benefit the network long term, fund flows and bond yields will likely determine the immediate price direction.

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