Bitcoin Analysis: BTC Is Falling on Doubts About AI Spending. Is It Trading Like a Tech Stock Now?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) fell below $80,000 today, driven by investor anxiety about AI spending. The top cryptocurrency slipped as much as 1.4%, hitting under $79,300, and was trading at $79,859 in early New York hours, close to its 30-day low of $79,107. So far in October, Bitcoin has dropped 4.1%.

While a 1.4% decline is minor compared to Bitcoin’s typical volatility, it coincided with a significant selloff in AI and tech stocks. So, is Bitcoin now behaving like a tech stock?

AI Spending Fears Hit Tech Stocks, and Bitcoin Follows Suit

The downturn began on Wall Street. On October 22, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.2%—its worst performance since July. Investors grew concerned that rising borrowing costs for data centers and AI chips could hinder the AI sector’s growth. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which gauges expected market fluctuations using S&P 500 options, increased from 14.8 on October 9 to 19.0 by October 22.

Earnings reports fueled the fears. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) fell 7% after a mixed quarterly report and the announcement of a new class of stock to raise funds for AI projects. CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), a company that borrows money to buy AI chips for cloud rental, fell 10.1% on debt concerns, while NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) fell 4.4%.

So why do worries about AI spending affect Bitcoin, which doesn’t rely on borrowing for data centers? Pratik Kala from Apollo Crypto explains that many systematic funds—those that operate based on computer-driven strategies—tend to group Bitcoin with other risky assets. When these funds reduce risk, they often sell both Bitcoin and tech stocks, regardless of Bitcoin’s own news.

Nonetheless, Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, noted that Bitcoin has been “relatively resilient” amid AI debt concerns. She also noted that market focus is shifting to the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28 and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.

Bitcoin Fell Below $80,000 as ETF Investors Pulled $773 Million

A moving average helps traders analyze price trends by smoothing out daily fluctuations, and at $79,859, Bitcoin is trading 2.9% below its 20-day average of $82,254 and 2.4% below its 50-day average of $81,802.

Traders closely watch the $80,000 mark for psychological reasons. The next key level to monitor is the 30-day low of $79,107, about 0.9% lower. The current intraday low, slightly under $79,300, came close to testing it.

Bitcoin’s weakness may be partly due to ETF selling. SoSoValue data shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—funds that directly hold Bitcoin and function like stocks—saw net outflows of $635.5 million on October 22 during $2.56 billion of trading. Another $137.9 million flowed out on October 23, bringing the two-day total to about $773 million.

These outflows reversed a strong start to the week, when the funds had attracted $526.6 million on October 19 and $528.4 million on October 21. So, ETF investors sold on the same day the Nasdaq fell.

Bitcoin’s Connection to Tech Stocks Tightens

We measured the correlation of daily returns between Bitcoin and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), an ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100. Correlation measures how closely two assets move together: 1 means they move in lockstep, while near zero indicates independent movements.

Over the past 21 trading days, the correlation reached 0.67. This contrasts with 0.38 over the past 63 trading days and 0.44 over the full 99-day sample. In other words, Bitcoin has moved much more like tech stocks in the past month than over the past quarter. Over a similar period, QQQ fell 4.6%, while Bitcoin fell slightly more, to 5.0%.

However, this link has limits. QQQ is up 15.2% in 2026, whereas Bitcoin is down 8.4% this year. In early trading today, QQQ rose 0.4% while Bitcoin dipped, suggesting Bitcoin may be influenced by tech stocks in downturns but doesn’t necessarily rise alongside them.

Bitcoin Has Held Up Better Than Ethereum and Solana

Over the past month, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) dropped 13.6%, and Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) fell 16.4%, both significantly worse than Bitcoin’s 5.0% decline.

Bitcoin has the largest pool of buyers in the crypto market, including spot ETFs, which held $104.4 billion in net assets as of October 23. Smaller cryptocurrencies tend to swing more dramatically when traders cut risk, because fewer big buyers are ready to step in. Therefore, in a volatile crypto market, Bitcoin operates more like the steadier tech stocks.

Is Bitcoin Acting Like a Tech Stock Now?

For now, Bitcoin seems to be trading more like a tech stock than usual. Its 0.67 correlation with the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) over the past 21 trading days shows it. Investors fear rising AI borrowing costs could hurt tech profits. The next round of big tech earnings reports could confirm or ease these fears. Our free bubble survivor’s handbook offers tips on navigating an AI rally like this.

However, the 63-day and 99-day readings of 0.38 and 0.44 show this close link is new, and links that tighten in a selloff can loosen once the panic subsides. If Bitcoin rises above its 20-day average of $82,254—approximately 3% higher—on a day QQQ drops, the link may be breaking. Conversely, if Bitcoin closes below its 30-day low of $79,107 while ETF outflows persist, Bitcoin would still be behaving like a high-risk tech investment.

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