Bitcoin Is Trading Below Its 20-Day and 50-Day Averages. Can It Reclaim $81,800?
A single day of ETF outflows knocked Bitcoin off two key moving averages, and now the price is caught between a resistance zone traders refuse to buy through and support levels that could give way before the Fed speaks.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading below its 20-day moving average of $81,875 and its 50-day average of $81,840, both near $81,800. Despite a slight 0.7% bounce to $80,642, Bitcoin remains down 4.1% for the week. A moving average reflects the average closing price over a specific period.
Both averages converge around $81,800, marking the boundary between a potential short-term uptrend and a continuing downtrend. In October, Bitcoin fell 3.5%, closing at $80,029 on October 26, its lowest close in 30 days. It remains 36.0% below its all-time high of $126,080, reached on October 6, 2025. So, what factors contributed to this decline, and what will it take for Bitcoin to rise again?
One Heavy ETF Session Knocked Bitcoin Off Its Averages
Bitcoin’s decline can be traced to a single day. Bitcoin closed at $84,025 on October 21 but at $81,307 on October 22. On that day, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced over $635 million in net outflows—the largest daily outflow for October—coming right after inflows of more than $528 million on October 21.
When investors withdraw money from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold Bitcoin, the fund must redeem shares, selling Bitcoin to meet redemptions. This ETF outflow appears to be the primary catalyst for the decline.
Moreover, Bitcoin has struggled to recover, closing below the $81,800 mark in every session from October 22 to October 27. Although ETF inflows turned positive again with more than $110 million on October 26 and over $175 million on October 27, this new money seems to be absorbing sell pressure rather than pushing prices back up.
Additionally, rising Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision have made investors more cautious about riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Resistance Is $81,400 to $82,500, and Support Starts Near $79,500
The first hurdle is the $81,182 high reached on October 27, the highest intraday price since October 23. Jesse Marre, a senior portfolio manager at Hilbert Group, identifies short-term resistance at $81,400, with moving averages positioned closely behind it. A daily close above $82,500 could signal that a significant recovery is gaining traction.
Bitcoin rebounded from intraday lows of $79,255 on October 26 and $79,107 on October 24. Marre suggests trend-line support, a line drawn under recent lows, lies between $79,500 and $78,500. He identifies $75,500 as a critical level that could break the base Bitcoin has built since its summer lows.
Bitcoin hit a 90-day low of $62,773 on August 1, but it currently trades above its 200-day average of $73,029, suggesting the longer-term trend remains positive.
Thin Volume and a Put Premium Show Traders Staying Defensive
Caution is warranted given current trading volume. On October 27, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume was only 4,356, far below the 7,277 recorded during the October 22 selloff and the 14,078 seen during the September rally from $76,349 to $86,595.
Traders appear to be opting for defensive strategies as reflected in the options market.
Hilbert Group reports a DVol, a measure of expected price movement for options over the next 30 days, at 38. Five-delta puts, which become more valuable if Bitcoin falls sharply, carry an implied volatility of 44% compared to 38% for matching contracts that gain value if Bitcoin rises. That means traders are paying more to hedge against declines than to benefit from gains.
Implied volatility—reflecting anticipated price swings—has consistently been about 8 points higher than realized volatility, which reflects actual price movements. Data from Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) shows one-week implied volatility rising from 31.5% on October 21 to 35.9%, surpassing the one-month reading of 35.8%. Pricier short-term protection suggests traders expect turbulence soon.
Bitcoin Has Fallen Less Than Ethereum and Solana Because of ETF Demand
Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen 4.1%, less than Ethereum’s (CRYPTO: ETH) 5.5% drop and Solana’s (CRYPTO: SOL) 5.2% loss. In October, the gap widened: Ethereum fell 13.0%, and Solana dropped 14.1%.
All three cryptocurrencies rose slightly over the last 24 hours, with Solana up 0.8%, Bitcoin up 0.7%, and Ethereum up 0.4%, reflecting a broad but shallow recovery.
The moving averages indicate a similar trend. Ethereum, priced at $2,337, is below its 20-day average of $2,435 and its 50-day average of $2,540. Solana, currently at $101, trades below its 20-day average of $106 and 50-day average of $109. Bitcoin’s moving averages are clustered just above its trading price.
ETF support explains much of Bitcoin’s relative stability. As of October 27, spot Bitcoin ETFs held more than $103.9 billion in net assets, with total cumulative inflows exceeding $57.4 billion. This capital tends to step in during dips, as on October 26 and 27, while smaller coins rely on crypto-native traders who liquidate their riskiest positions first when sentiment turns.
Can Bitcoin Close Above $81,800 Before It Retests $79,255?
A clean reclaim looks unlikely before the Fed decision is out. Bitcoin’s bounce depends on a rate decision that does not rattle markets and on ETF inflows that keep coming after just two positive sessions. For holders, the upside trigger is a daily close above $82,500.
That close puts Bitcoin back above Marre’s $81,400 and both averages, turning the short-term trend up and bringing Hilbert Group’s next targets of $85,000 and $87,500 into view. A daily close below $78,500 breaks trend-line support, and a close below $75,500 breaks the base built since the summer lows.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
