Ethereum Analysis: Could ETH Fall to $2,180 and Liquidate a $214 Million Whale?
A whale sitting on a $214 million leveraged bet on Ethereum is watching his liquidation threshold inch closer as ETH slides toward a level it hasn't tested in months, with Fed uncertainty and massive ETF outflows piling on pressure.
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Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is trading about 6% above the critical $2,180 level, where a whale’s massive $214 million long position is at risk of liquidation, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain. Ethereum was at $2,315 on the morning of October 26, 2026, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours and 13.2% for the month of October.
Recently, ETH hit a low of $2,276 on October 24, marking the month’s lowest point. If this downtrend continues, ETH could hit a two-month low. So, what has caused this shift, and is a drop to $2,180 possible?
Fed Caution, AI Concerns and ETF Outflows Are Weighing on ETH
Factors outside the crypto world are driving Ethereum’s price decline. On October 26, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) also dipped as investors became cautious ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting. Additionally, concerns about increased spending in AI sectors weighed on stocks and cryptocurrencies alike, especially as major tech firms were set to announce earnings. Consequently, smaller tokens like Ether followed Bitcoin’s downward trend.
Pratik Kala, a portfolio manager at Apollo Crypto, noted that many systematic funds and algorithmic traders view Bitcoin as a riskier asset. When these funds reduce exposure to riskier assets, they often sell both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Furthermore, Ethereum has recently lost a consistent buyer. Spot Ether ETFs—funds that hold ETH directly and trade like stocks—experienced a withdrawal of $225 million during the week of October 19. When investors pull money out of these funds, it often leads to ETH being sold off or fewer purchases.
A $214 Million Whale May Be Approaching Liquidation
ETH’s recent drop poses a significant risk to a major whale. Lookonchain tracks a trader who holds 93,184 ETH, valued at $214 million, in leveraged long positions. These positions profit when prices rise but are funded mainly with borrowed money, secured by a cash reserve called margin. If losses exceed that margin, the exchange will automatically sell the position, forcing a liquidation that can further push the price down.
This trader has already added margin once, contributing $5.67 million in USD Coin (CRYPTO: USDC) as a buffer. This adjustment shifted his liquidation prices from $2,256 and $2,227 on October 24 to $2,182 and $2,178 on October 25.
However, this position comes at a cost. The trader is currently down $18.6 million and has incurred $2.7 million in funding fees, regular payments between traders on perpetual futures contracts. AI-driven selling has exacerbated ETH’s decline, and if liquidation occurs, the resulting forced sell-off could trigger a steeper drop.
ETH Trades Below Key Averages With Weak Support Under $2,276
Moving averages—averages of closing prices over a specified period—help traders identify trends. ETH’s 20-day moving average sits at $2,453, while its 50-day average is at $2,543. This means that most recent buyers are currently facing losses.
Heavy selling activity hit at the start of the month, with ETH dropping from a close of $2,697 on October 6 to $2,573 on October 7, then to $2,473 on October 8, during the month’s highest-volume trading days.
On October 24, ETH plummeted to $2,276 in just one intense hour of trading before bouncing back to close at $2,355. Such a fast fall followed by a rebound often signals forced selling, which may stop once overleveraged positions are cleared. However, since ETH hasn’t dipped below $2,276 since August 20, there’s little recent support before the critical $2,180 level, with its 90-day low at $1,820 much lower.
Ethereum Has Declined More Sharply Than Bitcoin, but Less Than Solana
| Time Period | ETH | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | -0.7% | -1.1% | +0.2% |
| One month | -13.6% | -5% | -16.4% |
| Year to date | -21.5% | -8.4% | -18.5% |
Over the past month, Ethereum has declined more sharply than Bitcoin, which is down only 5%. However, it has fared better than Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), down 16.4%. Bitcoin benefits from a larger pool of institutional buyers, which helps it hold its value better during sell-offs. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, remarked that “Bitcoin has so far been relatively resilient to the AI debt concerns that are weighing on all risk assets.”
ETH and Solana often behave more like high-risk tech stocks, attracting leveraged traders who tend to sell more aggressively during downturns. ETH is also facing pressure from $225 million in weekly ETF outflows.
Could the Ethereum Price Fall to $2,180?
Yes, ETH could drop to $2,180, especially if it closes a day below $2,276. Large traders are split. Lookonchain highlighted a trader with a perfect track record of profitable trades, who opened a $63.9 million long on 26,974 ETH and has gained $842,000 so far. In contrast, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes sold $28.8 million in tokens, primarily ETH and Ethena (CRYPTO: ENA), for a profit of $6.65 million.
With the Federal Reserve meeting and crucial tech earnings on the horizon, the whale’s fate remains uncertain, and he could add margin again, while BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR | BMNR Price Prediction) keeps buying. If ETH closes a day below $2,276, a run at his $2,182 and $2,178 liquidation prices looks likely. If ETH climbs back above its $2,453 20-day average, the threat could fade.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
