If Crypto Falls Another 20%, Which Holds Up Best: Ethereum, Sui or Avalanche? Grok AI Ranks Them

As the crypto market faces a potential 20% decline, Grok AI, a model developed by xAI, expects Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) to remain the most resilient. In contrast, Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX) is predicted to withstand the drop better than Sui (CRYPTO: SUI). We assessed this ranking against current prices to identify which levels are crucial for these cryptocurrencies.

The selling trend has already begun. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell below $79,300 on October 26, 2026, as fears about AI spending seeped from the stock market into crypto. The crypto market’s total value has now fallen to $2.7 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index, which gauges investor sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, currently sits at 44, indicating a fearful outlook.

All three cryptocurrencies are already experiencing declines. Ethereum is trading at $2,301, down 4.3% over the past week and 53.3% from its all-time high. Sui is priced around $0.91, down 8.7% this week and 22.2% over the past month. Meanwhile, Avalanche is valued at $8.88, down 8% this week and 18.3% this month.

Grok AI Sees ETH Falling 19% and SUI 34% in a Further Selloff

Grok started from initial prices of $2,329 for ETH, $0.92 for SUI, and $8.94 for AVAX, and all three cryptocurrencies have already dipped below these levels. In Grok’s scenario, ETH might decline 19% to around $1,887, a smaller slide than the overall market. AVAX could drop 27% to about $6.53, while SUI may take the biggest hit, falling 34% to about $0.61.

ETH’s larger market capitalization helps explain this ranking. Currently, ETH ranks second at about $281 billion, while AVAX ranks 28th at around $3.9 billion, and SUI ranks 30th at about $3.7 billion. A smaller market cap generally means less selling pressure is needed to drive the price down.

Sui’s Token Unlocks Lead to Increased Supply Pressure

Out of Sui’s total maximum supply of 10 billion tokens, only about 4.12 billion are currently in circulation. The fully diluted valuation, which considers every token that could ever exist, is approximately $9.1 billion, more than double its current market value. The remaining 5.9 billion tokens still to be released could add selling pressure on SUI, especially as monthly unlocks add more supply to the market.

Avalanche’s gap is narrower, with a fully diluted valuation of about $4.2 billion. In contrast, ETH’s fully diluted valuation aligns with its market value. However, Avalanche has struggled with demand; U.S. spot Avalanche ETFs held just $51.4 million on October 22 and have seen minimal inflows recently.

Both Sui and Avalanche also face the challenge of recent gains that may be vulnerable to retracement. Over the past 90 days, in an altcoin run that lifted smaller coins, AVAX has surged 36.1%, and SUI has risen 33.1%, compared to a 21.3% increase for ETH.

Ether ETF Holdings Provide Liquidity but Show Outflows

Grok notes that ETH has the deepest liquidity of the three, with about $14.5 billion in spot ETF assets. Data from SoSoValue indicates that U.S. spot Ether ETFs held $14.64 billion on October 23, down from $17.79 billion on September 29.

Total net inflow—money received since launch minus withdrawals—slipped to $12.72 billion from $13.96 billion on September 28. The largest single-day outflow, which occurred on October 6, amounted to $201.9 million, and the funds added only $4.35 million in the most recent session.

A Whale’s Liquidation Prices Fall Inside ETH’s Support Zone

Support levels are vital price zones where buyers have historically stepped in. Grok identifies ETH support between $2,150 and $2,220, about 3.5% to 6.6% below its current price. Should it break below this range, it could drop to around $2,000.

For AVAX, support is found between $8.50 and $8.70, just 2% to 4.3% below, with a break there targeting $6 to $7.50. In SUI’s case, Grok points to support around $0.65, which is about 28% lower.

Lookonchain has detected a whale holding 93,184 ETH, valued at roughly $214 million, in leveraged long positions that profit only if prices rise. A liquidation would occur if an exchange force-sold its position due to insufficient collateral. This whale’s liquidation prices fall between $2,182 and $2,178, both within Grok’s ETH support zone. If forced selling occurs here, it could hit the same zone where buyers typically defend the price.

Which Holds Up Best if Crypto Falls 20%, According to Grok AI?

Based on Grok AI’s analysis, ETH is likely to hold up best in a market drop. Grok assigns a 52% probability that ETH will recover first, followed by AVAX at 30% and SUI at 18%. If the anticipated drop occurs in November, Grok forecasts ETH could settle around $2,100 by December 31, with AVAX at approximately $7.10 and SUI around $0.68.

Monitoring three critical levels is essential. If ETH falls below $2,150, forced selling may push it toward $2,000. AVAX is currently closest to its support level, and a close below $8.50 could push it into the $6-$7.50 range. For SUI, its crucial line is $0.65, and it has the weakest one-year performance, down 65.6%. Grok’s outlook holds if ETH stays above $2,150 while AVAX and SUI breach their floor levels, but it could be challenged if ETH breaks below $2,150 first.

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