Avalanche Is Up 29% This Month but Back Under $10. Can It Keep Beating Ethereum?
Avalanche just crushed Ethereum over the past month, but the rally already shows cracks. Whether AVAX can hold its ground depends on a few critical signals playing out right now.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Avalanche (CRYPTO:AVAX) has gained 29.1% over the past month. In contrast, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH), which competes with Avalanche for developers, users, and investor interest, has fallen by 4.1%. This puts AVAX well ahead in the Avalanche vs Ethereum comparison.
However, this advantage might not last. On October 15, 2026, AVAX dropped 5.9% to $9.62, falling back below $10. Over the past week, it has fallen 10%, while Ethereum has dropped 6.8%. So, which timeframe is more telling about AVAX’s future—this past month or the past week?
AVAX’s Monthly Gain and Weekly Loss Both Point to Its Smaller Size
Over the last 30 days, AVAX’s impressive 29.1% gain contrasts sharply with Ethereum’s 4.1% loss. However, on a weekly basis, AVAX trails with a 10% drop versus Ethereum’s 6.8% decline.
These results can largely be attributed to AVAX’s smaller size in the market. Smaller cryptocurrencies tend to rise faster than larger ones when demand spikes, but they also fall faster when selling starts. Additionally, because AVAX has lower liquidity, less money is in the market to absorb large trades.
Interestingly, the reason behind AVAX’s monthly increase isn’t clear-cut. No recent network upgrades, new exchange listings, or partnerships would typically boost a coin’s price. Gains without a clear reason often reverse, as investors may not have a solid reason to hold.
Ethereum Is Worth About 68 Times as Much as Avalanche
When looking at market capitalization, which is calculated by multiplying a coin’s price by the total number of coins in circulation, the difference between the two networks becomes apparent. As of now, AVAX’s market cap stands at $4.27 billion, compared to Ethereum’s $288.83 billion, making Ethereum about 68 times as valuable.
This disparity lets AVAX gain 29.1% with relatively small amounts of money, amounts that would have little impact on Ethereum. Conversely, this means that just a handful of large sellers can cause significant losses in AVAX’s price, which may explain its current 10% weekly drop.
Looking at how far each coin has fallen from its all-time high reveals more about its market position. AVAX is trading 93.4% below its November 2021 peak of $145, meaning it would need to rise about 15 times to reach that level again. In comparison, Ethereum is down only 52.2% from its record. This deeper decline for AVAX suggests a prolonged drop in demand, and being far from an all-time high doesn’t necessarily make a cryptocurrency a bargain.
CME Futures Let Large Traders Take Positions on AVAX Without Holding It
Both Avalanche and Ethereum have access to a futures market, with CME Group (NASDAQ:CME | CME Price Prediction) offering single-asset crypto futures for both along with several other major cryptocurrencies.
Futures contracts let investors buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a future date, allowing institutions to profit from price changes without holding the cryptocurrency directly. This setup also makes it easier for large traders to short-sell AVAX, allowing them to profit from price declines.
In Avalanche vs Ethereum, Can AVAX Keep Its Lead?
While AVAX has shown encouraging short-term gains, it is unlikely to sustain a lead over Ethereum for an extended period. Its gains rely heavily on the broader cryptocurrency market’s upward trend. Without a clear trigger for further price increases, AVAX’s recent gains appear to reflect market sentiment rather than strong fundamentals, which could lead to sharper declines if the market turns bearish.
However, AVAX could defy expectations if it rebounds above $10 and maintains that level for a week while Ethereum declines. This would indicate strong buying interest specifically in Avalanche. The same goes for any new developments, such as the announcement of a significant institutional investor. Conversely, if AVAX remains below $10 and continues to see larger weekly losses than Ethereum, the recent monthly gain could quickly fade.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
