Will XRP or Avalanche Keep Their Gains in October?

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) climbed 22% for the week ending September 23, 2026, rising from $1.30 to $1.58. Meanwhile, Avalanche (CRYPTO:AVAX) jumped 50%, soaring from $7.47 to $11.24. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) also rose 14% over the same period, but XRP and Avalanche outperformed the market. Now, investors are wondering whether XRP or Avalanche will hold their gains through October.

As of now, both cryptocurrencies are pulling back slightly. XRP is trading at $1.50, down 5.3% from its weekly close of $1.58, while AVAX is at $10.32, down 8.2%. So, which coin is more likely to hold its gains as we head into October?

XRP and Avalanche Have Different Starting Points for Their Recent Rallies

The two cryptocurrencies began their recent surges from different positions. XRP has remained stable above the $1 mark it reached in mid-August, even hitting $1.70 on August 22 and holding above $1.40 through its dip on September 21. In contrast, AVAX spent much of late June through August fluctuating between $6 and $8 before suddenly skyrocketing from $7.47 to over $11 in just four days.

This significant leap from a lower base means AVAX has more ground to lose if the momentum shifts. On September 19, before its final jump, AVAX closed at $10.10, just 2% below its current price. By comparison, XRP’s weekly reference point is $1.30, which is 14% below its current price of $1.50.

Looking at their performance this year tells a mixed story: AVAX is down 8.7%, while XRP has fallen 13.9%. However, over the past 12 months, XRP has performed better, having dropped 43.9% compared to AVAX’s 66.6% decline.

What’s Driving Avalanche’s Recent Surge?

Avalanche’s recent rally is largely backed by news surrounding tokenization. On September 21, Aave, the largest lending platform in crypto, launched a hub on Avalanche for loans secured by tokenized assets, marking its first move beyond Ethereum. Additionally, New York Life Investment Management announced plans to create a tokenized fund on the network that will hold U.S. high-yield corporate bonds, and Janus Henderson has joined as a validator.

Moreover, the Helicon upgrade went live on September 22, reducing the time required for users to lock their AVAX tokens for staking from 14 days to just 48 hours. This change makes it easier for users to enter staking and allows those who want to exit to sell their tokens within two days.

However, much of the excitement surrounding Avalanche is tied to the still-unsettled news about the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has been testing Avalanche for potential around-the-clock trading of tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs. But ICE hasn’t decided or announced any specific plans yet. Buyers investing on this news may be taking a risk until more details emerge.

XRP’s Week Leaned on a Short Squeeze, and an Upgrade and Escrow Release Come Next

XRP’s impressive week was less about significant news and more about a short squeeze. On September 21, exchanges liquidated about $300 million worth of short positions in just one hour, and XRP had the most crowded short side among major cryptocurrencies leading up to that moment.

XRP is heading into October with two important events that could impact its price. The first is the XRP Ledger’s Batch upgrade, which is scheduled for September 29. This upgrade will allow up to eight transactions to settle together or not at all, pending support from at least 28 of 35 validators.

The second event is on October 1, when Ripple will release up to 1 billion XRP from its escrow, although it typically locks most of that back up.

Thus, XRP enters October with one potential demand boost and one factor that could increase supply. Meanwhile, AVAX is waiting on the uncertain ICE decision with no set timeline.

Which Keeps Its Gains Through October, XRP or Avalanche?

In our view, XRP has a better chance of holding on to its recent gains. Its rally was smaller, and it has remained above the key price level it established in August. Plus, XRP has a track record of attracting buyers, as U.S. spot XRP ETFs have taken in $1.71 billion since November 2025. Although AVAX boasts stronger recent news, its significant surge from a low base already shows an 8% pullback.

However, ICE’s decision could change the game. If they choose Avalanche for tokenized trading before the end of October, AVAX could gain the institutional support that its recent rally has been anticipating. For XRP, a daily closing price below $1.30—14% lower than $1.50—before October 31 would suggest a substantial loss of momentum. Similarly, for AVAX, a close below $10.10—just 2% under $10.32—would suggest its recent surge may have been too good to last.

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