Bitcoin Controls 59.5% of the Crypto Market. Is Altcoin Season Still Possible?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) accounts for a significant 59.5% of the crypto market. This percentage, known as Bitcoin dominance, shows how much of the $2.72 trillion crypto market Bitcoin controls. Traders and altcoin investors monitor this figure closely to gauge when it might be their turn to shine.

While Bitcoin has also dipped, currently priced at $80,566—down 3.0% over the past 30 days—its dominant share is driven by even steeper declines in altcoins. In the same timeframe, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) fell 12.5%, Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) dropped 14.5%, and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) fell 11.9%.

A senior researcher at Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY | GLXY Price Prediction) said the bear market is now behind us. This raises the question: Have altcoin sell-offs reached their limit, setting the stage for a potential recovery, or is Bitcoin still the preferred asset?

What Is Bitcoin Dominance and Why Do Traders Watch It?

Bitcoin dominance is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s market cap by the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies. Market cap is calculated by multiplying a coin’s price by its circulating supply. Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap is at $1.62 trillion, while Ethereum accounts for 10.5% of this total.

Traders often use Bitcoin dominance as a sentiment indicator. When dominance rises, it typically signals that money is flowing into Bitcoin, viewed as a safer option (risk-off trend). Conversely, when dominance drops, it indicates a shift toward smaller, riskier altcoins. Traders call a prolonged decline in Bitcoin dominance “altcoin season,” a period when many altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

According to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, a note from October 27 suggests the bear market ended in June, meaning Bitcoin is now in an accumulation phase that usually precedes a price rise. He claims the lowest point came in June, when Bitcoin was priced below $58,000.

Over the last 90 days, Bitcoin has risen by 24.5%, aligning with Thorn’s predictions. Historically, in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles, Bitcoin led gains, and altcoins only began to outperform it after significant price moves. Increased liquidity and new retail investors entering the market fueled these rotations. If Thorn’s perspective is correct, Bitcoin’s current high dominance could signify the early stages of a new market cycle.

Why Is Bitcoin Dominance So High?

Bitcoin dominance can increase for two main reasons: either Bitcoin is gaining value faster than other cryptocurrencies, indicating new demand, or altcoins are losing value quicker than Bitcoin, suggesting that holders are selling off. In this current scenario, it’s clearly the latter—Bitcoin has lost 3.0% over the last month, while Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) has tumbled by 17.5%. Over the past year, Bitcoin has fallen 28.5%, Ethereum 41.1%, and XRP 49.1%.

The total used to measure dominance has its own peculiarities. It includes stablecoins—tokens tied to the value of the dollar—so Bitcoin’s percentage can drop even if no one is buying altcoins, because traders often move funds into stablecoins for safekeeping.

While some altcoins are performing relatively well, they aren’t enough to signal the start of an altcoin season. For example, Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) has risen 13.4% over the past month and a striking 77.4% over the last year, largely due to demand for privacy coins. Meanwhile, Pepe (CRYPTO: PEPE) rose 16.1% over 30 days, but with a $2.04 billion market cap, it’s too small to significantly affect Bitcoin’s dominance.

Market sentiment isn’t particularly strong either. The Fear & Greed Index, which measures market emotions on a scale from 0 to 100 (where low numbers indicate fear), currently sits at 48—a neutral stance. Typically, counter-trend buying works best after most sellers have exited, and at 48, sentiment hasn’t fully pivoted yet.

Are ETFs and Ethereum Showing Any Rotation Into Altcoins?

For an altcoin season to take hold, several conditions must align. Bitcoin dominance would need to decrease, the ETH/BTC ratio would need to rise, ETF investments would need to flow into altcoin funds, and investors would need a greater appetite for risk. Currently, the trend appears to be in the opposite direction.

On October 27, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $176 million, following $110 million on October 26 and a $635 million outflow on October 22, with cumulative net inflows at $57.47 billion. In contrast, altcoin funds are struggling. U.S. spot Solana ETFs lost $19 million on October 27 and $8 million on October 26, with net assets dropping from $1.94 billion on September 29 to $1.54 billion.

XRP ETFs reported no net flows on October 27 after a $3.6 million outflow on October 26, indicating weak demand for altcoin funds.

The ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ethereum’s price against Bitcoin, remains a crucial indicator of potential altcoin rotations since Ethereum is the leading altcoin. Ethereum has dropped 12.5% over the last 30 days, while Bitcoin has fallen only 3.0%.

Ethereum trades at $2,334, which is 4.2% below its 20-day moving average of $2,435 and 8.1% below its 50-day average of $2,540. Although sellers currently dictate the trend, Ethereum remains 8.1% above its 200-day moving average of $2,158.

Is Altcoin Season Still Possible With Bitcoin Dominance at 59.5%?

While an altcoin season remains possible, current data shows no signs of it unfolding yet. The prevailing 59.5% Bitcoin dominance largely reflects altcoin weakness rather than strong demand for Bitcoin. Keeping a close watch on market trends will be essential to determine if a rotation toward altcoins is truly on the horizon.

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