Solana at $3,000 or Bitcoin at $1 Million by 2030: Which Is More Likely?

For Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) to reach $3,000 by 2030, it would need to climb about 34 times its current price. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), on the other hand, needs a smaller but still large 13-fold rise to hit $1 million. Holders of both coins often discuss these targets, even though both cryptocurrencies trade well below their all-time highs.

Solana is priced at $89.08, down 18.3% over the past month and 43.6% over the past year. Bitcoin trades at $75,662, down 8.6% for the month and 26.2% for the year. However, both have gained since August 10, with Bitcoin up 18.1% and Solana up 17.4%.

Bitcoin at $1 million is a particularly appealing milestone in crypto. On the August 29 episode of The Pomp Podcast featuring Jordi Visser, the conversation framed $1 million Bitcoin as a next-decade outcome, with the line “If we get to $100 trillion over the next decade and Bitcoin gets to a million over the next decade, that’d be fun.” So which is more likely by 2030, Solana at $3,000 or Bitcoin at $1 million?

What Solana at $3,000 and Bitcoin at $1 Million Would Be Worth

If Bitcoin hits $1 million, its network value would roughly equal all the gold in the world. Bitcoin’s market cap, its price times the coins in circulation, is about $1.52 trillion. At $1 million on 20,109,575 circulating coins, that comes to about $20.1 trillion, about 13 times its current value. Gold is worth an estimated $20 trillion at about $4,068 an ounce, so investors would need to value Bitcoin on par with gold.

Solana’s target is even more ambitious. Its market cap stands at about $52.6 billion. At $3,000, its roughly 591 million circulating tokens would be worth about $1.77 trillion, or 34 times today’s value. That would exceed Bitcoin’s current worth and equal about 70% of the total $2.53 trillion crypto market.

Solana’s growing supply makes the climb even steeper. Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, so $1 million would mean about the same market cap in 2030 as it does today. Solana has no supply cap and keeps issuing staking rewards, payments to users who lock up SOL to secure the network. About 637 million SOL already exist, more than the 591 million circulating, so $3,000 could push the market cap closer to $1.91 trillion.

Bitcoin and Solana Have Made Huge Runs Before, From Smaller Bases

Bitcoin has pulled off big gains before. Between 2019 and 2021, its monthly close rose from $3,436 in January 2019 to $61,310 in October 2021, about 17.8 times. More recently, it climbed from a $17,161 close in November 2022 to its $126,080 all-time high on October 6, 2025, about 7.3 times.

Solana’s early growth looks even more striking on paper. SOL traded at $0.69 on April 9, 2020, soon after its launch, and reached $239.17 by November 9, 2021, about a 347-fold increase. However, that run started from a far smaller base, and a 34-fold climb from a $52.6 billion market cap would need much more new money, as our look at whether Solana can ever hit $1,000 shows.

Spot ETF Demand Has Flipped to Outflows

Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has weakened. SoSoValue data show cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs at $55.7 billion on November 6, down from $57.96 billion on October 21. The funds posted net outflows of $643.3 million on October 30, followed by $430.2 million and $411.9 million on November 5 and 6.

Solana’s ETFs look weaker still. Cumulative net inflows slipped to $1.44 billion on November 6 from $1.58 billion on October 9, with just one inflow day in that stretch, $585,297 on October 21. Net assets fell to $1.31 billion. A 34x target would likely require years of steady buying, but the Solana funds are seeing withdrawals instead.

Bitcoin Dominance at 60% Favors the Bigger Coin

Bitcoin holds a 60% share of the total crypto market, a measure known as Bitcoin dominance. It could reach $1 million by holding that share as the overall market grows. For Solana to reach a $1.77 trillion market cap, the total market would need to grow, and Solana would also need to take a large piece of Bitcoin’s share, making the task even harder.

The Pomp Podcast discussion pictured a $100 trillion crypto market over the next decade, with Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH), Solana, and AI-focused projects driving innovation. However, that scenario stretches past 2030, leaving both coins only about four years to hit their targets. Our Claude AI forecast for Bitcoin and Solana by 2030 walks through nearer-term scenarios.

Is Solana at $3,000 or Bitcoin at $1 Million More Likely by 2030?

Bitcoin at $1 million is the more plausible of the two, although both look unlikely by 2030. Bitcoin would need to grow about 91% a year for the next four years, while Solana would need about 141% a year on a growing supply with shrinking ETF flows. Our comparison of Bitcoin at $1 million and XRP at $10 reached a similar conclusion.

Bitcoin trades about 40% below its $126,080 all-time high, and Solana is 69.6% below its $293.31 peak from January 19, 2025, so each must reclaim its peak first. Closing above those levels by December 2027, with ETF inflows returning, would keep both 2030 targets alive. Falling short would likely push either target past 2030, leaving Bitcoin below $1 million, as its last 7.3x cycle suggests, and Solana adding to its 62.7% five-year decline.

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