The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP) is finally winning again. RSP is up roughly 12% year to date at roughly $213, running ahead of the cap-weighted SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s roughly 10% gain. That reverses the mega-cap dominance that defined 2023 through 2025, and it comes with a fund that now holds roughly $88 billion in net assets across 508 positions. Two things matter more than anything else over the next 12 months.
What RSP Actually Looks Like Right Now
RSP targets a roughly 0.2% weight in every S&P 500 constituent and rebalances quarterly. Between rebalances, winners drift up and losers drift down. The April 30 snapshot shows the accumulated drift: Intel sits at the top at 0.38% of net assets while Tractor Supply anchors the bottom at 0.14%. That is a 2.8x spread inside a fund investors buy specifically to avoid concentration.
The top 20 positions read like a semiconductor conference roster: Intel, Seagate, SanDisk, NXP, Microchip, Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, Analog Devices, Dell, Lumentum, and HPE all rank above household names. Meanwhile, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta each sit at roughly 0.20% or less, so this fund gives you almost no Magnificent Seven torque compared to SPY.
The Macro Factor: The Yield Curve and the Fed
The single most important macro variable for RSP over the next 12 months is the shape of the yield curve. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread sits at 0.40%, in only the 8th percentile of its 12-month range and well below the 0.54% average. A steepening curve, which historically arrives when the Fed cuts the front end, favors smaller-cap, cyclically sensitive, and financially levered names over mega-cap growth. Those are exactly the constituents RSP overweights relative to SPY.
The transmission is visible in current holdings. J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ:JBHT), a classic rate-sensitive cyclical, is up roughly 45% year to date even as its trailing P/E sits at 43. Elevance Health (NYSE:ELV | ELV Price Prediction) has added roughly 23%. Watch the 10Y-2Y spread on the FRED page (T10Y2Y) weekly and cross-check against the CME FedWatch tool. A move through 0.60% signals the market is pricing in cuts, and history says that is when equal-weight strategies start opening real distance on cap-weighted peers.
The Fund-Specific Factor: The Next Rebalance
The fund-specific variable to watch is the quarterly rebalance. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight index resets constituent weights on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. At the next reset, the semiconductor cluster that has drifted to 0.24% to 0.38% gets trimmed back toward 0.20%, and laggards get bought up. Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG), down roughly 15% year to date, will see mechanical buying. BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), down roughly 3%, gets the same treatment. Steady growers like Cintas (NASDAQ:CTAS) at roughly flat stay near target.
RSP has effectively been a semiconductor-tilted fund for the last few months, riding the AI capex wave that pushed ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) up roughly 67% and lifted the semi names inside RSP. After the rebalance, that tilt resets. If you bought RSP for pure diversification, you get it back. If you bought it because the semi cluster has been carrying the fund, the tailwind gets clipped. Cross-check the Invesco RSP holdings page after each quarterly rebalance date and note how much the top 10 changes.
What to Watch
Two signals matter over the next 12 months. If the 10Y-2Y spread pushes above 0.60% and the CME FedWatch shows two or more cuts priced in, RSP’s advantage over SPY should widen. Then check the September rebalance for how far the semiconductor overweight has been trimmed. That combination determines whether the equal-weight trade keeps working or hands leadership back to the mega-caps.
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