The Dividend Aristocrats Returned 37.22% Over Five Years. BlackRock’s HDV Returned 82.92%.
NOBL has been the go-to choice for dividend-growth investors, but a closer look at the numbers against a rival ETF reveals a performance gap so wide it forces a hard question about whether loyalty to a strategy is costing you…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
You probably chose the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (CBOE:NOBL) for a good reason. It holds companies with long records of raising their dividends, and for many investors, that track record matters more than the size of today’s payout. NOBL has become the default pick for dividend-growth investors. Over the past five years, though, NOBL returned 37.22% with distributions reinvested. The iShares Core High Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA:HDV) returned 82.92% over the same period.
That works out to a gap of 45.7 percentage points. Both five-year windows start on October 20, 2021, and both figures assume distributions were reinvested. A $100,000 position in the ProShares fund grew to $137,220. The same amount in HDV grew to $182,920. On those numbers alone, the case for switching looks obvious. The longer record makes it less clear-cut.
Ten Years Later, Both Funds Finish in Nearly the Same Spot
Over a full decade, the gap almost goes away. Measured from October 21, 2016, HDV returned 172.65%, and NOBL returned 171.96%. HDV’s edge was just 0.69 percentage points.
After ten years, the two funds ended up in almost the same place. So the five-year result depends heavily on which window you measure. For NOBL investors, read the 45.7-point gap as a picture of one period of time. It does not show that one fund is simply better.
HDV Leads Every Recent Window We Measured
Over shorter periods, the picture favors HDV every time.
| Period | HDV | NOBL | HDV Lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| One month | 4.56% | 3.67% | 0.89 points |
| Year to date | 26.24% | 12.04% | 14.2 points |
| One year | 26.99% | 14.59% | 12.4 points |
| Five years | 82.92% | 37.22% | 45.7 points |
| Ten years | 172.65% | 171.96% | 0.69 points |
Across these periods, the Aristocrats fund trailed in every recent window. HDV’s lead of more than 12 points over both the past year and year-to-date is a wide margin for two funds built from dividend-paying U.S. stocks. Tuesday afternoon’s delayed quotes showed HDV trading at $30.05 and NOBL at $57.41. The share price itself tells you nothing about which fund is the better value.
Two Different Ways to Pick Dividend Stocks
The funds each hold dividend-paying U.S. stocks, but they choose them in different ways. According to its summary prospectus dated September 28, 2026, the ProShares fund tracks large U.S. companies that have consistently increased dividends each year over a long period. It chooses companies based on their history of raising payouts.
iShares says HDV tracks an index made up of relatively high dividend-paying U.S. equities. It chooses companies based on how much they pay out now. If you move from NOBL to HDV, you give up the dividend-raising screen in exchange for a screen built around current payouts. That changes what you own, so consider it a real change in risk profile.
Switching Means Choosing a Dividend Style
A move from NOBL to HDV is a choice between a dividend-growth style and a high-current-dividend style. The ten-year tie shows that neither style beat the other over a full decade. The recent record shows which style has led lately, and future leadership remains uncertain.
How you switch matters as much as whether you switch. In an IRA or 401(k), selling NOBL and buying HDV triggers no tax. In a taxable account, selling NOBL shares that have gained in value creates capital gains, and that tax bill can wipe out much of any expected benefit. There are easier options.
You can send new contributions to HDV and leave existing NOBL shares in place. You can sell only the tax lots with the lowest gains. Or you can hold both funds and own both styles side by side.
What Switching Costs and Gains NOBL Holders
For NOBL holders in tax-advantaged accounts, HDV’s style has led in every window from one month to five years, and a switch there carries no tax cost. For holders who value the dividend-raising record, or who face a large taxable gain on a sale, the trade-offs of changing are larger. Ten years of nearly identical returns show that the dividend-growth strategy has not cost investors who stayed invested any real return.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Ryne Mauck is an investment writer covering exchange-traded funds, retirement planning, and portfolio strategy. Through his work at 24/7 Wall St. and other investment platforms, including Seeking Alpha, he aims to provide clear, research-driven insights that help investors make more informed decisions while maintaining a long-term approach to investing.
Ryne holds a B.Sc. in Finance and an M.A. in Political Science. He is a formerly registered Municipal Advisor Representative and has passed the Series 50, Series 63, and Series 65 exams. His articles are not intended to be, nor should they be interpreted as, financial advice.
