ADP’s August Payrolls Data Looks Like a Shocker
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NASDAQ: ADP) has stunned the markets with its projected private payrolls gains this morning. The number is meant to preempt the official Labor Department’s report on the employment situation due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST. If…
ADP is projecting that some 201,000 jobs were added to the payrolls in the month of August. Why this is such a shock is that Bloomberg was only calling for about 140,000 jobs created. We also saw a slight revision higher for July to 173,000.
This will make the weekly jobless claims that much more important. Tomorrow’s big jobs expectations by Bloomberg are as follows:
- Nonfarm payrolls 125,000, with a range of 70,000 to 177,000
- Private payrolls 134,00, with a range of 80,000 to 177,000
- Unemployment expected to be flat at 8.3%, with a range of 8.2% to 8.4%
What you need to expect is simple. The market now likely will ratchet up its expectations slightly. That 8.3% unemployment range is now probably a coin toss between 8.2% and 8.3%, and the nonfarm payrolls and private sector expectations will be adjusted higher by 20,000 or 30,000.
There is a caveat here as well. ADP is indicated as a prediction tool, but sometimes it is not representative of the broad economic report.
JON C. OGG
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. www.247wallst.com.
