Electronic Arts: Earnings Weighed Against Valuation (ERTS, TTWO)

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) has reported its video game numbers for investors today.  The company’s net was -$0.30 in GAAP EPS on $804 million in revenues (misleading numbers).  Before a $231 million deferred revenue number, the company said non-GAAP revenues were $609 million.  Its non-GAAP EPS was $-0.42 EPS.  Estimates on a non-GAAP basis were $639.8 million and -$0.33 EPS.

The video game publishing giant also gave guidance for fiscal March 31,2009.  It sees non-GAAP EPS $1.30 to $1.70.  That is up from $1.06 thislast year and compares with estimates of $1.59 EPS.  It put non-GAAPnet revenues at $5.0 to $5.3 Billion, which is up from $4.02 Billionthis last year and compares to estimates of $5.15 Billion. 

The companyis also using an effective 28% tax rate guidance for projections ahead.  Unfortunately, there was no word given over its Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) buyout ambitions.

EA Shares closed up almost 3% in regular trading at $47.40, but itlooks like shares are back down to about $46.00 in after-hourstrading.  Its 52-week trading range is $43.13 to $61.62.

Even if we take the mid-point of forward guidance and use the FirstCall estimate, you get a forward P/E ratio range (using the $47.40close) of 31.6 or 21.81.  Even if we use the high-end of the rangegiven in case the company is trying to set the bar low we get a forwardP/E ratio of nearly 28.

Unfortunately for the company, unless it can bring these new propertieson or make a great bolt-on buy, this stock is still looking ratherexpensive on the remedial surface analysis considering the currenteconomic climate.  If that stock price slides, then the valuations willcome more in-line with a slow economy and one where no new major gamingplatforms are on the immediate horizon.

Jon C. Ogg
July 29, 2008