Outlook for June Retail Sales Dim

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For the third consecutive month, retailers are forecast to a post same-store sales gain of 0.9%, 30 basis points below lower than first-quarter growth according to analysts at Retail Metrics. It would have been even smaller without the surprise 3.9% rise in same-store sales at Walgreen Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA) announced Wednesday morning. Retailers report June same-store sales on Thursday.June is typically a month for end of summer sales and clearances ahead of the transition to back-to-school merchandise in July. The Memorial Day holiday was counted in June this year, which added to sales; the weather was favorable; and Father’s Day should have helped sales.

Retail Metrics took note of the U.K. vote to leave the European Union:

Post-Brexit interest rate movements have pushed the 30-year mortgage down to 3.66%, its lowest level since May 2013, and produced a spike in recent refinance activity that should put more cash in homeowner’s hands this summer. Macroeconomic data has generally been favorable for consumer spending. This is not translating into sales gains, however, for many of the nation’s retailers as consumers allocate purchases to experiences, health & beauty, the home, autos, other big ticket purchases, as well as to savings.

Among retailers who still report monthly same-store sales, Retail Metrics expects Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) to report June same-store sales growth of 3.1% not including gasoline sales. L Brands Inc. (NYSE: LB) is forecast to post overall growth of 1.9%, with Bath & Body Work’s seeing growth of 3.7% and Victoria’s Secret adding 1.3%.

The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is expected to post a decline of 3.6% across all its stores with Banana Republic stores diving more than 10%. Teen retailer Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE) is forecast to see a same-store sales decline of 3% compared with June 2015.

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