2. Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI
> Years to recover: 10.9
> Home value peak: 9/1/2005
> Home value trough: 2/1/2011
> Pct. change peak to trough: -44.6%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -24.6%
Home values in the Detroit area peaked in September 2005. Values fell almost 45% over the next five-and-a-half years, troughing in February 2011 — almost two years after the official end of the recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Since then, home values have improved by 36.2% but remain almost 25% below their 2005 high. Using Detroit’s 2.6% rate of home value growth over the 12 months through January 2015, home values in Detroit will need almost 11 years, until about October 2025, to return to their peak levels. That would mean while it took about five-and-a-half years for Detroit values to bottom, it could take, in total, more than 14 years for them to recover.
The trajectory of Detroit’s unemployment rate roughly tracked that of home values: home values were at their highest when the unemployment rate was near its lowest and values dropped as the unemployment rate rose. Detroit’s housing values were affected as well by the area’s personal income. The five-year median household income of $41,184 in the area was far below that national median of $53,046. The area income was the lowest of the areas where home values could take at least four years to recover.
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1. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
> Years to recover: 16.8
> Home value peak: 10/1/2005
> Home value trough: 3/1/2012
> Pct. change peak to trough: -32.0%
> Pct. change peak to January 2015: -24.4%
It could take four times as long for home values in the Providence area to recover as it did for them to collapse. After peaking in October 2005, home values in the Providence-Warwick area plunged 32.0% in the ensuing six and a half years. From March 2012 until this January, home values in the area recovered 11.1%, although this was one of lowest percentage increases. Home values also recovered unevenly. They grew 2.7% in the 12 months ended 2013, then shot up nearly twice as fast — 5.2% — in the next 12 months. However, in the following 12 months ending in January 2015, home values rose by just 1.7%, nearly the slowest growth rate. Based on the most recent growth rate, the value of a home in the Providence-Warwick area will not reach its pre-crash high until November 2032, a total of 27 years since the area’s value peak.
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