Those Kansas City Chiefs have given NFL prognosticators (and Chiefs fans) headache upon headache in recent weeks. They may be the NFL’s most perplexing team. Most everyone was fooled with their spiffy 5-0 start; now they’ve fallen to 6-5. A quarterback controversy could be brewing, and yet they still earn enough respect to be favored. Last week, they were huge favorites by Bing (78%) and in Las Vegas (-9.5) and still lost 16-10 to Buffalo. Again this week, the Chiefs are the favorites at the Jets. We will see.
That game was not the only whiff by Bing Predicts, which finished NFL’s Week 12 correctly calling 12 of the 16 games. The other misses were the Cardinals’ 27-24 upset win over Jacksonville; the Rams beating the heavily favored Saints 26-20; and the Chargers routing the Cowboys 28-6.
The only team more perplexing than the Chiefs is the New York Giants, who have opted to bench their two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback Eli Manning in favor of Geno Smith, who has thrown 36 interceptions in 34 games and has a career completion percentage of 57.7%. New York faces off against an unsurprisingly heavily-favored Oakland Raiders team.
With only five weeks remaining in the regular season, a few key matchups could make this week interesting or heart-wrenching, depending on your point of view.
It should come as no surprise that the teams with the projected biggest margins to win are the Patriots over the Bills, Jacksonville toppling the Colts, and the Chargers over the Browns.
Buckle up, could be another bumpy ride.
Bing’s NFL predictions use team and player statistics and web activity to build a statistical model that takes into account historical data and real-time information (like injuries, suspensions, and lineup changes). Finally, social sentiment adds a unique wisdom-of-the-crowd factor to the model. Learn more about Bing Predicts.
Click here to see Bing’s predictions for the NFL week 13.
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Source: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
> Bing Predicts winner: Dallas (51%)
> Kickoff time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thursday)
> Game spread: Dallas -2.5
> Matchup history: Cowboys lead 69-44-2
The Cowboys won the first of this season’s two meetings with the Redskins on Oct. 29 by a score of 33-19, but four weeks later these two teams are vastly different. Dallas (5-6) is without suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott and yet is still favored, although not by much. Dallas’ Dak Prescott has not been the same quarterback since Elliott started serving a six-game suspension on Nov. 12. In the first eight games with Elliott on the field, Prescott threw for 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. In the past three games without Elliott, Prescott has zero touchdowns and five interceptions. The Cowboys have been outscored 92-22 in those three losing efforts. Think a run game doesn’t make a difference? This is all the proof you need.
While the Redskins have the same 5-6 record, they have won two of their last four. Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins has passed for more than 300 yards in two of the last three games but has a 1-5 career mark against the Cowboys. In defense of Washington, they’ve had a ton of injuries, and each week their offensive line is questionable due to injury. Only three quarterbacks have been sacked more than Cousins, who has gone down 31 times for 269 yards, the most in the league.
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Source: Scott Cunningham / Getty Images
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
> Bing Predicts winner: Atlanta (53%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Atlanta -3
> Matchup history: Vikings lead 18-11-0
As the home team, the Falcons (7-4) get the edge here against the Vikings (9-2), who seem to be a lock to win the NFC North. After a streaky start, the Falcons are in a battle for a wild-card spot. Winning this one would give them a better chance to make it to the postseason. The high-powered offense stalled early this season, but quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones have rediscovered the rhythm that got them to the Super Bowl in February. In the last six games, Ryan has tossed 10 touchdown passes against just two interceptions. Jones caught a dozen passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns in the 34-20 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. It was his third career game of more than 250 receiving yards, the first player in NFL history to accomplish this. One of the scores came on a trick play with wide receiver Mohamed Sanu connecting with Jones for a 51-yard touchdown. You don’t see that every day.
The Vikings, riding a seven-game win streak, are sticking with Case Keenum who passed for 282 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 30-23 win in Detroit on Thanksgiving. It’s not all Keenum. He’s got an effective pair of running backs in Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon and a triple threat at wide receiver between Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph. The Vikings are overcoming injuries and making the most of the situation.
Source: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
> Bing Predicts winner: New England (80%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: New England -9
> Matchup history: Patriots lead 70-43-1
No shocker here that the Patriots (9-2) are the favorite. The Bills have not beaten the Patriots at home since 2011. Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the gang are looking unstoppable with seven consecutive wins by an average margin of 14.9 points. They don’t have the best record in the NFL — that belongs to the 10-1 Eagles — but with Sunday’s 35-17 win over the Dolphins, the Patriots clinched their NFL-record 17th consecutive season with a winning record, the most in NFL history. And more bad news for the Bills (6-5) — Brady is 26-3 in his career against Buffalo.
Bills coach Sean McDermott swallowed his pride and went back to quarterback Tyrod Taylor on Sunday. It paid off with a 16-10 upset win over the reeling Kansas City Chiefs. Taylor is no Brady, but he’s an improvement over Nathan Peterman who threw five interceptions in the first half the previous week against the Chargers. The win over the Chiefs snapped a three-game losing streak where the Bills had been outscored 135-55.
Source: Elsa / Getty Images
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
> Bing Predicts winner: Chicago (55%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Chicago -5.5
> Matchup history: 49ers lead 33-31-1
John Fox could be coaching for his job as the Bears’ season winds down. Chicago (3-8) is favored but only because the 49ers (1-10) are even more abysmal. No one thought the Bears would beat the Eagles, but more of an effort was expected. The 31-3 loss was not all on Mitchell Trubisky, but the rookie quarterback threw two interceptions. The Bears finished with 6 (!) rushing yards. Fox is in his third season in Chicago, and the rebuilding process is slower than most anyone imagined with a 12-31 record.
San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo finished Sunday’s game, a 24-13 loss to the Seahawks, and will get the start at Chicago. It was the quarterback’s first action since he was acquired on Halloween. He knows the offense, looked comfortable in his three snaps, and could be an improvement over C.J. Beathard who bruised his leg in the game. Garoppolo completed both of his passes, including a 10-yard touchdown toss. Perhaps the quarterback move will spark whatever there is to ignite the 49ers’ offense.
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Source: Joe Sargent / Getty Images
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
> Bing Predicts winner: Green Bay (53%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: No line
> Matchup history: Packers lead 32-21-1
Lambeau Field is a tough place to play, which makes the Packers (5-6) the favorites even though they’ve lost two straight. Brett Hundley can’t be confused with Aaron Rodgers, but the quarterback showed that his poise was paying off when the Packers took the Steelers down to the wire on Sunday night. Though Pittsburgh won 31-28, Hundley had his best game with 245 passing yards, three touchdown passes, and no interceptions.
The Bucs (4-7) could have Jameis Winston back at quarterback on Sunday. He has missed three games with a shoulder injury. While he was out, Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Bucs to a 2-1 record. Even if Winston returns, injuries are an issue, with four players in concussion protocol. Running back Doug Martin and safety. T.J. Ward left Sunday’s game, and defensive end Robert Ayers and offensive lineman Evan Smith are still in protocol from a week ago. Cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III missed the game with a hamstring injury, while defensive end Clinton McDonald (back) and special-teams captain Josh Robinson (hamstring) were forced out of the game.
Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
> Bing Predicts winner: Tennessee (66%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Tennessee -7
> Matchup history: Titans lead 16-15-0
The Titans (7-4) look to split the season series and not lose ground in the AFC South where they’re tied for first with the Jaguars. Quarterback Marcus Mariota was credited with his eighth career game-winning drive in the 20-16 win over the Colts. It was his fourth such drive this season.
While the Texans (4-7) won the first matchup 57-14 on Oct. 1, they are not close to being the same team. Since that time, they’ve lost three key players for the season: quarterback Deshaun Watson, defensive end J.J. Watt, and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus. The Texans have a short week coming off a 23-16 loss at Baltimore on Monday night. In that loss, quarterback Tom Savage threw for 252 yards but no touchdowns, and he had two picks. Ouch.
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Source: Robert Reiners / Getty Images
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
> Bing Predicts winner: Denver (55%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Miami -1
> Matchup history: Dolphins lead 11-6-1
Know how it can be nauseating to watch a player break a leg or suffer a major injury? Well, this matchup won’t be that ugly but close. because they’re 2 losing teams? Denver will be without starting cornerback Aqib Talib, who has been suspended for two games for an on-field fight with Oakland’s Michael Crabtree, who is also out for two games. Rookie Brendan Langley is expected to replace Talib in his first NFL start. Trevor Siemian, who has 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, will get the start for Denver.
Miami (4-7) is coming off a brutal 35-17 loss to New England. It was the Dolphins’ fifth straight loss. The defense repeatedly made mistakes, and Tom Brady, being no fool, took advantage. The Dolphins’ defense has allowed at least 26 points in six straight games (five of them losses). They’re giving up an average of 26.3 points per game — only the Colts are worse. Offensively, Mike Moore threw for one touchdown and two interceptions and was sacked seven times.
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Source: Jamie Squire / Getty Images
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
> Bing Predicts winner: Kansas City (63%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Kansas City -4
> Matchup history: Chiefs 19-18-1
The favored Chiefs (6-5) look to end their three-game slide when they play the Jets (4-7). Coach Andy Reid has made it clear that quarterback Alex Smith is his guy and will start at the Jets, even if his interception late in the game is what sealed the 16-10 loss to the Bills on Sunday.There’s been an outcry in K.C. to give rookie Patrick Mahomes a chance at quarterback, but Reid is standing pat, at least for now. Smith isn’t the only offensive problem. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt managed just 17 yards in 11 carries. The Chiefs’ defense will add a new wrinkle with cornerback Darrelle Revis suiting up for his first game. We’ll find out if the 32-year-old still has juice. He might be a little more motivated going up against the Jets who did not re-sign him last spring.
Jets quarterback Josh McCown has found a connection with wide receiver Robby Anderson, who caught two touchdown passes in the 35-27 loss to the Panthers. Anderson, who had six catches for 146 yards, has scored in five straight games. On Sunday, the Jets blew a fourth-quarter lead for the third time in the last six games.
Source: Christian Petersen / Getty Images
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
> Bing Predicts winner: Jacksonville (70%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Jacksonville -8.5
> Matchup history: Colts lead 22-11-0
The Jaguars (7-4) are once again favored five weeks after they blew out the Colts 27-0 in their first meeting. While Jacksonville is tied atop the AFC South with the Titans, it has been a lost season for the Colts who have never recovered from losing quarterback Andrew Luck. Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles didn’t have his best game (no touchdowns, one interception) in the 27-24 loss to the Cardinals, but he’s mostly been solid. In the first game against the Colts he completed 69.2% of his passes for 330 yards and a touchdown. It’s the Jaguars’ defense, which is rated tops in the NFL (allowing 15.3 points and 281.8 yards per game), that sets them apart.
The Colts (3-8) defense is at the other end of the spectrum and is ranked 29th in yards allowed per game with 375.8. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has settled in and thrown four touchdown passes and one interception in the last three games. But the Colts have lost five of the last six, and also four of the last five on the road.
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Source: Rob Carr / Getty Images
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens
> Bing Predicts winner: Baltimore (51%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Baltimore -3
> Matchup history: Ravens lead 3-1-0
The Ravens (6-5) will be coming off a short week after topping the Texans on Monday night, 23-16. Still, they are favored over the Lions (6-5), who lost to the Vikings on Thanksgiving. Joe Flacco is a bit frustrated with the Ravens’ offense because he thinks it should be more aggressive. He told reporters on Monday night that “it’s probably not super-realistic” to think they can make a playoff run without improving their offensive play, which is 31st in the NFL, averaging 281.1 yards per game. No one is going to argue. The Ravens win with their defense, which has allowed the second fewest points per game in the NFL (17.0).
The Lions still have a small chance to make it to the postseason for the third time in Jim Caldwell’s four years in Detroit. The offense is not effective because the run game is not where it should be with healthy running backs Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick. This isn’t new. The Lions haven’t had a running back with at least 100 yards in a game since Reggie Bush on Nov. 28. 2013. Quarterback Matthew Stafford’s ankle was rolled in the game against the Vikings, but he’s expected to be fine. Detroit’s defense has to be more consistent and will be missing starting safety Tavon Wilson (shoulder) for the rest of the season.
Source: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers
> Bing Predicts winner: Los Angeles (75%)
> Kickoff time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Chargers -13
> Matchup history: Chargers lead 15-9-1
Don’t look now, but the Chargers (5-6) have an outside shot at the postseason. No reason they can’t get a win over the Browns (0-11). Imagine that. The Chargers own a two-game win streak with Philip Rivers playing lights out. In the 28-6 win over Dallas on Thanksgiving, he finished with 434 yards passing, completing a whopping 81.8% of his passes with 13.2 yards per attempt. Since Oct. 2, the Chargers are 5-2, and over that span, the defense has allowed an average of just 15.6 points per game. They’re adapting to their new Los Angeles home in a 27,000-seat stadium that is nearly empty on game days. Maybe if they win, the crowds will grow. Tough to tell.
The Browns (0-11) stink — there’s just no way to write it nicely. Perhaps Josh Gordon will make a difference. The wide receiver is expected to be activated Sunday after sitting out since 2014 because of multiple violations of the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Still, quarterback DeShone Kizer will have to get him the ball. Kizer threw for a season-high 268 yards in Sunday’s loss to the Bengals and ran in a touchdown. Hope? Is there hope they can earn their first win? Sure, but don’t count on it.
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Source: Stephen Lam / Getty Images
New York Giants at Oakland Raiders
> Bing Predicts winner: Oakland (77%)
> Kickoff time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Oakland -7.5
> Matchup history: Raiders lead 7-5-0
Don’t count the Raiders (5-6) out yet. They are favored in this one. If they beat the Giants (2-9) and if the Chiefs lose to the Jets, Oakland will be in first place in the AFC West. First things first, the Giants. Oakland could be playing without two of its top receivers. Michael Crabtree has been suspended for two games for fighting with Denver’s Aqib Talib. Amari Cooper has been in concussion protocol since a serious collision in the Raiders’ 21-14 win over the Broncos. However, running back Marshawn Lynch had a season-high 26 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown.
After 210 consecutive regular-season starts, the Giants publicly benched two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning, causing a media storm — at least in New York. Many players are also fuming at the poor treatment of their club leader by coach Ben McAdoo. Either way, Geno Smith will get the start. The Giants’ two wins came against AFC West opponents — the Broncos and Chiefs. So maybe there’s a chance against Oakland. Giants guard Justin Pugh, who has missed two games, could be back in action. Perhaps he could help protect Smith. Manning was sacked four times in the 20-10 loss to the Redskins. Manning had his lowest completion percentage (48.1) and lowest passing yardage (113) of the season in that loss. The Giants average 15.6 points per game, the second-worst in the NFL.
Source: Harry How / Getty Images
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
> Bing Predicts winner: New Orleans (57%)
> Kickoff time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: New Orleans -3.5
> Matchup history: Panthers lead 24-21-0
In one of the better Sunday matchups, the Saints (8-3) are favored. They won the first meeting on Sept. 24, 34-13 over the Panthers. The Saints’ eight-game win streak was snapped in Sunday’s 26-20 loss to the Rams. In general, however, the offense is rolling behind Drew Brees. Alvin Kamara deserves a huge chunk of credit. The rookie running back is a dual threat with 546 rushing yards (7.1 yards per carry) and 548 receiving yards (10.1 yards per catch). He’s got a combined nine touchdowns (five rushing). Veteran running back Mark Ingram is right behind him with 1,055 yards from scrimmage (837 rushing) and eight touchdowns. Amazing how much a run game can help an offense flourish. The Saints own the NFL’s second-best offense (409.4 yards per game).
The Panthers (8-3) have won four straight thanks in part to the play of Cam Newton, who didn’t pass for a touchdown but rushed for one in Sunday’s win over the Jets. Carolina’s defense has tightened up since Week 3 and ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 288.3 yards per game. In that first meeting, the Saints ran for 149 yards against Carolina. This time that number will be tougher to match. The 34 points the Panthers allowed the Saints was the most Carolina has given up this season in one game.
Source: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
> Bing Predicts winner: Los Angeles (78%)
> Kickoff time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Los Angeles -6
> Matchup history: Series tied 38-38-2
Not many expected the Rams (8-3) to find such success in coach Sean McVay’s first season. The coach and team seem to be a perfect fit. They should be too much for the Cardinals (5-6) to handle on Sunday. It was on Oct. 22, their first meeting, when the Rams rolled to a 33-0 win. Quarterback Jared Goff, who was the first overall draft pick in 2016, has found his comfort zone in McVay’s offense. In the last four games he has 1,245 passing yards, nine touchdown passes, and one interception. It helps that he has a running back like Todd Gurley, who ranks third in the NFL with 865 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns (eight rushing).
The Cardinals are coming off a 27-24 upset win over Jacksonville. Blaine Gabbert threw for a pair of touchdowns and one interception, filling in for an injured Drew Stanton, who was starting in place of Carson Palmer who broke his arm. Adrian Peterson has been up and down since his arrival in Arizona. He’s gone five games without a touchdown and only has two all season.
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Source: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
> Bing Predicts winner: Philadelphia (69%)
> Kickoff time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Philadelphia -6
> Matchup history: Seahawks lead 8-7-0
Let’s be honest, the Eagles (10-1) would be favorites over any team except maybe the Patriots. They’ve won nine straight behind a solid offense (ranked third in the NFL, averaging 381.5 yards per game) led by quarterback Carson Wentz, who leads the league with 28 touchdown passes. The Eagles also have the NFL’s stingiest rushing defense, allowing just 65.1 rushing yards per game. It all adds up to wins. Running backs LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi both have more than 650 rushing yards this season.
The Seahawks (7-4) are coming off a 24-13 win over San Francisco, which is not all that impressive considering the 49ers have just one win. Russell Wilson is tied for third in the NFL with 3,029 passing yards. He’s thrown 23 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions. Seattle has overcome injuries to win six of their last eight games. It’s always tough for opponents to play at Seattle, but the numbers add up for the Eagles in this one.
Source: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
> Bing Predicts winner: Pittsburgh (75%)
> Kickoff time: 8:30 PM EDT (Monday)
> Game spread: Pittsburgh -6
> Matchup history: Steelers lead 61-35-0
The Steel Curtain is really just a memory from the 1970s in Pittsburgh, but these 2017 Steelers (9-2) have a convincing defense that is ranked fourth in the NFL, giving up 289.4 yards per game. The Bengals (5-6) which have the second-worst run game in the NFL, will likely feel like they’re running into a steel curtain. In their first meeting on Oct. 22, the Steelers won 29-14. Think of this version of the Steelers and it is offense that comes to mind. Le’Veon Bell still is the NFL’s top running back (981 rushing yards), and he’s not doing it on his own. Antonio Brown is the league’s top wide receiver with 1,195 yards. Brown, along with wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant, average 191 receiving yards a week.
Cincinnati’s two-game win streak should come to a screeching halt. The Bengals topped the Broncos and Browns, but Pittsburgh is a little different story. After a slow start this season, quarterback Andy Dalton has looked increasingly better with 18 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions this season, equalling his totals for last season with five more games to play.
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