Special Report

Who Would Win in Battleground States If the Presidential Election Was Today

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11. North Carolina
> Electoral votes: 15
> Who would win today: Joe Biden; +0.7 point avg. spread
> Winner in 2016 election: Donald Trump; +3.7 points
> Nov. 2016 voter participation: 61.6% (15th highest)

North Carolina is one of only a few states in the southeastern U.S. where Biden stands a chance in November. The vote in the state is split between white, rural, largely conservative voters and more diverse populations in cities and suburbs who tend to be more moderate or left leaning.

The state, worth a considerable 15 electoral votes, is one of the most closely contested races in the country. Though Trump defeated Clinton in the state in 2016 by a 3.7 point margin, Biden currently holds a slight edge over the president in most polls.

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12. Ohio
> Electoral votes: 18
> Who would win today: Joe Biden; +2.4 point avg. spread
> Winner in 2016 election: Donald Trump; +8.1 points
> Nov. 2016 voter participation: 61.4% (16th highest)

No candidate has won the White House without winning Ohio since 1960, when John F. Kennedy was elected president. Though Trump had a decisive victory in the Buckeye State in 2016, strong turnout among the state’s Black voters in cities could turn the state blue in November. Despite evidence that Ohio is becoming a red state, most polls now show that Biden is slightly more likely to secure the state’s 18 electoral votes than Trump.

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13. Pennsylvania
> Electoral votes: 20
> Who would win today: Joe Biden; +4.3 point avg. spread
> Winner in 2016 election: Donald Trump; +0.7 poins
> Nov. 2016 voter participation: 60.2% (21st highest)

Home to nearly 13 million people, Pennsylvania is worth a substantial 20 electoral votes. In 2016, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Pennsylvania since George H.W. Bush in 1988, edging out Clinton by just 0.7 point.

While major cities in Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, are Democratic strongholds, the state’s rural areas tend to be staunchly conservative. Pennsylvania suburbs are generally more moderate. Currently, most polls identify Biden as the frontrunner in the Keystone State.

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14. Texas
> Electoral votes: 38
> Who would win today: Donald Trump; +3.5 point avg. spread
> Winner in 2016 election: Donald Trump; +9.0 points
> Nov. 2016 voter participation: 47.7% (2nd lowest)

No Democrat has won the Lone Star State since Jimmy Carter did in 1976. Last election, Trump won Texas by a decisive 9 point margin. However, as the state has grown more racially diverse in recent years and its white suburban voters have become more moderate, Texas is no longer a state the Democrats can write off. Still, most polls are showing Trump with a clear advantage in Texas.

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15. Wisconsin
> Electoral votes: 10
> Who would win today: Joe Biden; +6.7 point avg. spread
> Winner in 2016 election: Donald Trump; +0.8 point
> Nov. 2016 voter participation: 68.7% (2nd highest)

In a narrow upset, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984. The cities of Milwaukee and Madison are liberal strongholds, while much of the rest of the state is more moderate. Both Trump and Biden are directing campaign efforts in Wisconsin to secure the state’s 10 electoral votes.

Despite Trump’s victory in the Midwestern state in 2016, Biden currently has a clear advantage in the polls.