Currently, most national polls give Democratic candidate Joe Biden a slight edge over Trump in the race for the White House. However, much can change between now and Nov. 3, and in some states, Biden’s lead is razor thin.
Using data from FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregation platform, as well as The Economist, a weekly news publication, 24/7 Wall St. determined who would most likely win in each state if the election were held today. With only two exceptions, the winner is awarded all of a state’s electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes, awarding one vote to the winner in each congressional district and two to the winner across the state as whole.
As has been the case in most recent presidential elections, both the Republican and Democratic nominees can generally rely on winning the electoral votes of several states. In these states, voters tend to overwhelmingly prefer one party over another. For example, New York has not gone to a Republican presidential candidate in over three and a half decades, while Mississippi has not gone to a Democrat in over four decades.
As in previous years, the outcome of the 2020 election will likely be decided in a handful of politically divided, closely contested battleground states — in many of which Trump was able to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Here is a look at the 2020 battleground states.
Current polls show that Biden is leading in six states that Trump won in the previous election. If he can maintain that lead through election day, and also win the same states that his Democratic predecessor took in 2016, he will far surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to be elected president.
One factor that could prove decisive in several of the states on this list is voter turnout. Participation rates among eligible voters can fluctuate from one election to another, and motivation among likely voters remains a critical unknown factor going into Election Day. Voter turnout tends to fluctuate more among Democratic voters — and as has been the case in recent presidential elections, high voter turnout will likely benefit the Democratic Party in 2020. Here is a look at the states with the highest voter turnout.