Special Report
New IMF Data Shows The Countries With The Highest Economic Uncertainty
Published:
Key Points
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The global economy has experienced unprecedented levels of uncertainty in the past 12 months.
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The IMF quantifies uncertainty by counting the frequency of uncertainty-related terms in standardized country reports.
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Out of the 40 countries with the highest uncertainty, 27 are developing economies.
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At the individual level, the antidote to economic uncertainty is sound financial advice. Click here to get started.
The past year has seen markets around the world plunge into an era of unprecedented uncertainty. Supply chain turmoil, geopolitical shocks like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and trade tensions between the U.S. and China have roiled markets and clouded investment decisionmaking, while inflation, interest rates, and political instability have led to reduced consumer spending and job losses.
While uncertainty is difficult to quantify, a team of researchers from the International Monetary Fund is using novel text mining techniques to track uncertainty throughout the globe. First released in 2018, the World Uncertainty Index measures the frequency of uncertainty-related terms in Economist Intelligence Unit country reports to standardize and quantify uncertainty across 143 countries.
Data from the WUI shows that uncertainty tends to be highest in emerging markets with volatile institutions and political unrest. Of the 40 countries with the highest uncertainty, 27 are developing economies. Many advanced countries, however – which have recorded sharp spikes during periods like Brexit and the Trump administration – also make the list. A closer look at the data reveals the countries facing the greatest economic uncertainty today.
To identify the countries with the highest levels of economic uncertainty, 24/7 Wall St. analyzed quarterly data from the World Uncertainty Index. Countries were ranked based on the WUI score for Q1 2025, a normalized measure of the number of times the word “uncertainty” and its variants appear in Economic Intelligence Unit country reports. Supplemental data on GDP and population are from the World Bank.
40. Georgia
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.4170
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 2 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 4,796 words
- Total GDP: $30.5 billion ($8,120 per capita)
- Total population: 3.7 million
39. Turkey
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.4210
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 6 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 14,251 words
- Total GDP: $1.1 trillion ($12,986 per capita)
- Total population: 85.3 million
38. Ireland
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.4466
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 6 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 13,434 words
- Total GDP: $545.6 billion ($103,685 per capita)
- Total population: 5.3 million
37. Mexico
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.4685
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 5 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 10,673 words
- Total GDP: $1.8 trillion ($13,926 per capita)
- Total population: 129.7 million
36. Slovakia
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.4803
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 5 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 10,410 words
- Total GDP: $132.8 billion ($24,470 per capita)
- Total population: 5.4 million
35. Peru
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.4896
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 6 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 12,254 words
- Total GDP: $267.6 billion ($7,790 per capita)
- Total population: 33.8 million
34. Namibia
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5013
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 2 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3,990 words
- Total GDP: $12.4 billion ($4,743 per capita)
- Total population: 3.0 million
33. United Kingdom
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5021
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 7 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 13,942 words
- Total GDP: $3.3 trillion ($48,867 per capita)
- Total population: 68.4 million
32. Greece
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5059
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 7 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 13,838 words
- Total GDP: $238.2 billion ($22,990 per capita)
- Total population: 10.4 million
31. Indonesia
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5173
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 6 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 11,599 words
- Total GDP: $1.4 trillion ($4,941 per capita)
- Total population: 281.2 million
30. Lao PDR
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5204
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 2 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3,843 words
- Total GDP: $15.8 billion ($2,075 per capita)
- Total population: 7.7 million
29. Sierra Leone
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5277
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 5,685 words
- Total GDP: $3.8 billion ($433 per capita)
- Total population: 8.5 million
28. Kyrgyz Republic
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5305
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 2 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3,770 words
- Total GDP: $14.0 billion ($1,970 per capita)
- Total population: 7.1 million
27. Papua New Guinea
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5352
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 2 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3,737 words
- Total GDP: $30.9 billion ($2,994 per capita)
- Total population: 10.4 million
26. Mali
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5367
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 5,590 words
- Total GDP: $20.9 billion ($897 per capita)
- Total population: 23.8 million
25. Netherlands
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5647
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 7 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 12,397 words
- Total GDP: $1.1 trillion ($62,537 per capita)
- Total population: 17.9 million
24. Spain
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5662
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 7 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 12,363 words
- Total GDP: $1.6 trillion ($32,677 per capita)
- Total population: 48.3 million
23. Belgium
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5799
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 7 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 12,071 words
- Total GDP: $632.2 billion ($53,475 per capita)
- Total population: 11.8 million
22. Yemen
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.5808
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 5,165 words
- Total GDP: $21.9 billion ($533 per capita)
- Total population: 39.4 million
21. Honduras
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.6007
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 4,994 words
- Total GDP: $34.4 billion ($3,247 per capita)
- Total population: 10.6 million
20. Colombia
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.6124
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 8 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 13,064 words
- Total GDP: $363.5 billion ($6,980 per capita)
- Total population: 52.3 million
19. Brazil
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.6331
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 9 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 14,215 words
- Total GDP: $2.2 trillion ($10,044 per capita)
- Total population: 211.1 million
18. Germany
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.6494
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 9 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 13,860 words
- Total GDP: $4.5 trillion ($52,746 per capita)
- Total population: 83.3 million
17. Canada
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.6789
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 9 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 13,256 words
- Total GDP: $2.1 trillion ($53,372 per capita)
- Total population: 40.1 million
16. Kenya
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.6836
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 5 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 7,314 words
- Total GDP: $107.4 billion ($1,950 per capita)
- Total population: 55.3 million
15. Ethiopia
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.6868
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 4,368 words
- Total GDP: $163.7 billion ($1,294 per capita)
- Total population: 128.7 million
14. Venezuela
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.6913
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 10 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 14,466 words
- Total GDP: $102.3 billion ($3,867 per capita)
- Total population: 28.3 million
13. Romania
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.7309
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 9 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 12,313 words
- Total GDP: $351.0 billion ($18,419 per capita)
- Total population: 19.1 million
12. Belarus
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.7371
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 3 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 4,070 words
- Total GDP: $71.9 billion ($7,829 per capita)
- Total population: 9.2 million
11. Switzerland
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.8310
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 10 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 12,033 words
- Total GDP: $884.9 billion ($99,995 per capita)
- Total population: 8.9 million
10. Paraguay
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.8352
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 4 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 4,789 words
- Total GDP: $43.0 billion ($6,260 per capita)
- Total population: 6.8 million
9. El Salvador
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.8781
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 9 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 10,249 words
- Total GDP: $34.0 billion ($5,344 per capita)
- Total population: 6.3 million
8. United States
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.9003
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 12 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 13,329 words
- Total GDP: $27.4 trillion ($81,695 per capita)
- Total population: 334.9 million
7. Zimbabwe
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 0.9126
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 4 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 4,383 words
- Total GDP: $26.5 billion ($1,592 per capita)
- Total population: 16.3 million
6. South Africa
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 1.0486
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 13 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 12,398 words
- Total GDP: $377.8 billion ($6,253 per capita)
- Total population: 63.2 million
5. Tunisia
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 1.0910
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 10 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 9,166 words
- Total GDP: $48.5 billion ($3,895 per capita)
- Total population: 12.2 million
4. Chile
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 1.1601
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 14 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 12,068 words
- Total GDP: $335.5 billion ($17,093 per capita)
- Total population: 19.7 million
3. Ecuador
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 1.1671
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 13 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 11,139 words
- Total GDP: $118.8 billion ($6,533 per capita)
- Total population: 18.0 million
2. Bangladesh
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 1.4918
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 15 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 10,055 words
- Total GDP: $437.4 billion ($2,529 per capita)
- Total population: 171.5 million
1. Nepal
- Word Uncertainty Index score, Q1 2025: 1.5044
- Count for the word “uncertainty” in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 7 instances
- Total number of words used in EIU reports, Q1 2025: 4,653 words
- Total GDP: $40.9 billion ($1,324 per capita)
- Total population: 29.7 million
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