Technology

How Wall Street Analysts Rate Apple Now After Earnings

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has reported its fiscal second-quarter financial results, and the reviews after the fact are mixed. Most analysts have raised their price targets based on the earnings, the expectations and the company’s capital return plan being raised to $200 billion. 24/7 Wall St. has provided a very condensed summary of the earnings report, but we have also gone out and collected many analyst reports to get a better feel for why they are continuing to drive their estimates and price targets ever higher.

The iPhone maker reported $2.33 in earnings per share (EPS) on $58 billion in revenue, compared to Thomson Reuters consensus estimates of $2.16 in EPS on $56.06 billion in revenue. Gross margin for the second quarter was 40.8%, compared to 39.3% in the same period of last year. Apple also ended the most recent quarter with almost $194 billion or so in cash on its balance sheet.

The tech giant announced that it raised its quarterly dividend 11% to $0.52 per share. At the same time, Apple added $30 billion or so to its buyback plan last year, and the company has now spent over $112 billion returning capital to shareholders since it began, including a total of $80 billion in share repurchases. Apple said that it plans to utilize a cumulative total of $200 billion of cash by the end of March 2017.

24/7 Wall St. has provided some detailed analyst reports and has also collected some of the other analyst summaries where less detail was readily available. More detailed report information has been seen from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Canaccord Genuity, Oppenheimer and Wells Fargo.

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Merrill Lynch said:

We rate Apple Buy on: 1) strong iPhone product cycle 2) development of new revenue sources like Apple Pay, Apple watch, home/health kit etc, and 3) optionality provided by a significant cash balance that can help accelerate innovation into new markets.

Our price objective of $145 is based on 15 times our calendar 2016 EPS estimate of $9.52. Our target multiple compares to the historical range of 8-38 times (median 15x). We believe this multiple is justified given the strong product cycle ahead of Apple balanced by high penetration rates in several product categories.

We are using a multiple higher than peers (14 times) given the anticipated mix shift to higher-end products that will be positive for gross margins and as Apple continues to increase its mix of high margin recurring revenues through initiatives like Apple Pay.

Wells Fargo maintained its Market Perform rating, but it raised its valuation range to $125 to $135 from its prior range of $120 to $130. Wells Fargo’s Maynard Um said:

Our range is based on 10 to 11 times our fiscal 2015 free cash flow estimate. Compelling & innovative new products, better than expected gross margins, aggressive capital allocation are key upside risks. Operator subsidy reductions, misstep in product cycle, legal disputes, and greater than expected gross margin pressures are key downside risks.

We believe the positives of the current 6 cycle and perception as a relatively defensive stock to be offset by gross margin pressures and secular issues as it relates to a limited market cap opportunity in the existing product segments, and a potential balance of power shift back to wireless operators from handset vendors.

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Credit Suisse identified three additional levers for upside, reiterating its Outperform rating and $145 target. The firm’s Kulbinder Garcha said:

Although our estimates are above consensus, our assumptions may be conservative. First, gross margins of 40% at the corporate level could prove conservative as we do not take into account leverage from increased sales nor scope for expansion as cost curves on new products improve.

Second, we assume no significant impact from new products or monetization of services, such as Apple Pay, Beats, HealthKit and HomeKit. Third, our Watch estimates of 9 million units in 2015 and 28 million in 2016 could prove conservative, while our average sale price of $550 could also be conservative.

Oppenheimer’s Andrew Uerkwitz maintained his Outperform rating, with a $155 price target, noting that Apple was taking China by storm. He said:

Apple delivered another strong quarter, beating consensus with better-than-expected iPhone sales. The company saw strength in emerging markets, where sales grew 58% year over year. We continue to believe Apple will gain share as it’s in the middle of its best product cycle driven by its compelling ecosystem. We raise our 2015 and 2016 EPS from $8.73 and $9.76 to $8.94 and $10.37, respectively, based on updated iPhone sales estimates and adjustments for the new share repurchase program.

We take up our iPhone estimates, but admittedly, we see much slower unit year over year growth. Thus we assign a lower multiple as we believe investors will have to be comfortable with slower growth with near-perfect execution.

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Canaccord Genuity’s Michael Walkley reiterated his Buy rating and increased his price target to $155 from $150. He said:

We believe the strong results and solid guidance are consistent with our surveys and analysis indicating a record iPhone 6 upgrade cycle driven by two primary reasons. First, we believe the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus smartphones are generating very strong replacement sales from existing iPhone consumers.

Second, consistent with management commentary, we anticipate continued high-end smartphone market share gains for Apple due to surveys indicating a greater mix of Android smartphone consumers switching to the new iPhones than the iPhone 5 series launches.

Some of the general calls with price target updates were as follows:

  • Brean Capital reiterated its Buy rating and raised its target price to $170 from $160.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Buy rating and moved to a street-high price target of $195 from $180.
  • Mizuho maintained its Neutral rating but raised its target to $125 from $115.
  • Nomura still has a Neutral rating, but it raised its target to $133 from $129.
  • RBC Capital Markets has an Outperform rating and raised its target to $150 from $142.
  • R.W. Baird has an Outperform rating and raised its target price to $155.
  • S&P Capital IQ maintained its Hold rating but moved the price target to $150 from $140.
  • Susquehanna reiterated its Positive rating and raised the target price to $155 from $150.

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24/7 Wall St. also received word from WhisperNumber.com ahead of the formal earnings report. The firm said that Apple’s whisper number was $2.31 in earnings per share, with a whisper number accuracy of 79%. They showed that Apple has a 70% positive surprise history (47 of the past 67 earnings reports).

Apple shares were down 1.5% at $130.62 about an hour after the market opened on Tuesday. Apple’s 52-week trading range is $82.90 to $134.54.

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