The HomePod, according to this research firm’s projections, will be lucky to break 10% by 2022.
Canalys expects the smart speaker installed base will approach the 100-million barrier by the end of this year, making it almost 2.5 times bigger than at the end of 2017. The installed base will keep growing, more than doubling in size to reach 225 million units by 2020. Amazon Echo devices will account for over 50% of the installed base in 2018, while Google’s Home series will account for 30%. Apple’s HomePod models will trail, accounting for a meager 4% of the 2018 base.
My take: Actual market share charts are never as smooth as a research firm’s projections. Moreover, the smart speaker market being one Apple has decided to enter, a profit-share chart would look quite different.