Can Apple Sell 90 Million iPhones?

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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) needs to sell 90 million iPhone 17s this year for it to be considered a success.
Can it do so without its own AI features?
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By Douglas A. McIntyre October 9, 2025

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Can Apple Sell 90 Million iPhones? — © ViewApart / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Though it varies from analyst to analyst, the expectation is that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) needs to sell 90 million iPhone 17s this year for the new smartphone to be considered a success. The most recent forecast is from Morgan Stanley, which thinks iPhone 17s orders from suppliers will be nearly that high. Of course, orders and sales are not the same thing. Nevertheless, it is a good measure of magnitude.

Apple’s stock is up only 3% this year, which puts it in contrast to most of the megatech companies, whose stocks have skyrocketed because of artificial intelligence (AI) achievements. Apple says it will not release the iOS with AI until next year. That delay alone could dampen iPhone 17 sales.

A new camera and faster processor may not be enough for people to upgrade from the iPhone 16. Most customers cannot tell the difference. Even a faster-charging battery failed to generate excitement.

What investors fail to understand is why Apple has not cut a major AI deal to upgrade the new iOS or give it world-class features. Almost every one of the world’s largest tech companies have formed alliances with companies like Nvidia and OpenAI.

Apple has over $130 billion in cash and marketable securities. It can borrow an infinite amount of money at low interest rates However, it is not building a data center with xAI, nor has it set a deal with OpenAI to build a special AI feature for the new iOS. Instead, it is content to delay an AI feature for another several months.

Apple has another challenge it could address in a partnership. The top three free apps at the Apple App store are OpenAI’s Sora, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and Google Gemini. Essentially, iPhone owners already have the most advanced consumer AI products available for their iPhone 17s. That makes it harder for Apple to call the next iOS generation a success.

Apple must be plagued by management that is far too cautious. If it were not true, it would have set a deal on ago to get it further down the AI road.

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