Technology

Is Weaker Alibaba Growth a Sign of More Bad Things Ahead?

Alibaba Logo
Source: Courtesy of Alibaba
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) reported third-quarter fiscal 2015 results before markets opened Thursday. The China-based Internet giant reported adjusted diluted earnings per American depositary share (ADS) of $0.81 on revenues of $4.29 billion. This report covers Alibaba’s first full quarter as a publicly traded company. Third-quarter results compare to the consensus estimates for EPS of $0.75 on revenues of $4.45 billion. One ADS is equal to one ordinary share.

The revenue total will be a disappointment to investors. Coupled with the Chinese government’s accusations that the company has failed to stop the sale of fake goods and engaged in bribery and other illegal activities, this report will weigh on a stock that has gained about 45% since its initial public offering in September 2014.

Alibaba measures its performance on gross merchandise value (GMV), which is the total amount transacted on its marketplace websites. For the quarter, total GMV was $127 billion and mobile GMV accounted for $53 billion — or 42% — of that total. Sequentially that is a gain of 36% in mobile GMV. Analysts had been looking for stronger growth in mobile transactions.

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The number of active buyers on Alibaba’s retail marketplaces totaled 334 million in the 12 months ended in December, up 45% year-over-year. Mobile active users rose from 217 million at the end of September to 265 million at year-end. The company said that is nearly double the number of mobile buyers at the end of 2013.

The company’s CEO, Jonathan Lu, said:

Our unrivaled leadership and momentum in mobile continued — we added 48 million active users sequentially and delivered over US$1 billion in mobile revenue during the quarter. Our business continues to perform well, and our results reflect the strength of our ecosystem and the strong foundation we have for sustainable growth.

Alibaba did not provide a forecast in its press release. Analysts expect earnings per ADS of $0.48 on revenues of $2.92 billion in the company’s current quarter. For the full fiscal year ending in March, consensus estimates call for earnings per ADS of $2.17 on revenues of $12.61 billion.

Just for comparison, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), which reports results after markets close Thursday, is expected to post revenues of $29.67 billion for the quarter and earnings per share of $0.17. Full-year revenues are tagged at $89.3 billion. Alibaba has a long way to go to play in the same ballpark as Amazon, and it will not get there unless it can beef up its user numbers. The government investigation will not help that.

It is worth noting that even though Alibaba claims more active users than the entire U.S. population, the number represents barely a quarter of China’s population. There is plenty of room for growth if the company can figure out how to get China’s vast number of mobile users to shop from their phones.

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Alibaba traded down about 5.5% in Thursday’s premarket session, at $93.01 in a post-IPO range of $82.81 to $120.00. The consensus price target from Thomson Reuters was just over $120 a share before the results were announced.

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