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Investors are watching Navitas Semiconductor (NASDAQ:NVTS) ahead of its fiscal Q1 2026 results due tonight after the close. After a 676% one-year run, this report could either validate the rally or trigger a sharp reset.
A Parabolic Run Meets the Reality Check
NVTS shares have ripped from $2.05 to $15.92 over the past year, fueled by the company’s pivot toward AI data center power. The stock is up 122.97% year to date and 80.91% over the past month, but it has cooled into the report, falling 13.01% over the past week.
Last quarter, revenue came in at $7.30M, beating the $6.95M consensus by 5.04%, and non-GAAP EPS landed at -$0.05. The bigger story: high-power markets contributed a majority of revenue for the first time. CEO Chris Allexandre framed the shift as evidence that “AI as a catalyst that is driving momentum and broadening adoption of high-power solutions” is taking hold.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q1 2026 Consensus |
YoY Change |
| Revenue |
$8.18M |
-42% |
| Non-GAAP EPS |
-$0.05 |
In line |
| FY 2026 Revenue (prior FY) |
$45.92M |
-44.88% |
| FY 2025 Non-GAAP EPS |
-$0.20 |
n/a |
Management guided Q1 revenue to $8.0M to $8.5M, with non-GAAP gross margin of 38.7% plus or minus 25 bps and opex near $15M. Keep in mind that 2027 is expected to be the year Navitas revenues begin ‘hockey sticking.’ So expectations will be muted throughout 2026 with most the focus on management’s commentary around product wins and momentum in out years, like 2027 and 2028.
AI Data Center Traction Is the Whole Ball Game
I’ll be watching three things tonight. First, did revenue land inside the guide and confirm a return to sequential growth after five quarters of decline? Second, the gross margin trajectory toward 38.7%, which is critical given Q4’s negative gross profit of -$1.25M. Third, any update on the NVIDIA 800V HVDC collaboration, where engineering samples shipped in Q4 and supplier selections are expected this year.
Polymarket has the beat at 92.5% implied probability, with the “Yes” price climbing 42.5 percentage points over the past week. Insider activity backs the bull case: CEO Allexandre acquired 272,633 shares plus 545,267 option grants at a $9.0 strike on April 1, and CFO Tonya Stevens picked up 559,912 shares on March 30.
The bear case is valuation. NVTS trades at 81 times trailing sales against an analyst consensus target of $8.15, well below the current $17.21. However, this is a company that could see sales grow anywhere from 15 to 30-fold by the end of the decade if it executes and sees growth from massive markets like the switch to 800V data centers.
Robert W. Baird upgraded shares to Outperform on May 4 with a $20 target, but Zacks ESP sits at 0%, hinting at an in-line result rather than a blowout.
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