Saying that low gasoline prices could cause problems for the electric carmaker, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas forecast sales for Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) at 300,000 units by 2020, 40% below the company’s own estimate of 500,000 units. Jonas expects tumbling gasoline prices to be a factor pressuring sales of the company’s Model 3, which Tesla has said will be priced at around $35,000.
The selling price of the Model 3 could be closer to $60,000 Jonas said in a research note, according to a report at CNNMoney. At that price point, sales of the Model 3 could suffer from competitive gas-powered compacts, especially if gasoline prices remain low.
The Model 3 is not expected to be delivered until 2017, and any estimate of the price of gasoline that far into the future is, at best, a guess. The NYMEX quote on crude oil futures for December 2016 is currently $62.25 a barrel, rising to $64.17 a barrel in December of 2017. Based on Wednesday’s quote for January 2015 delivery of around $54.40 a barrel, the forecast price of crude barely covers inflation. That almost certainly will not be the price of crude three years from now.
Jonas believes that Tesla’s long-term success is “more dependent” on volume sales of the Model 3 than on sales of the existing Model S or the Model X SUV that is scheduled for deliveries starting in the third quarter of 2015.
In November, Jonas cut his estimate of Model X deliveries from a company-reported total of 15,000 to 5,000, but maintained Morgan Stanley’s Buy rating on the stock and a price target of $320. Jonas reiterated the Buy rating Wednesday morning, but cut the price target to $290.
Tesla’s shares were down about 2.5% in premarket trading Wednesday, at $192.91 in a 52-week range of $136.67 to $291.42.
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