Live: Will IREN Smash Q4 Earnings After 12% 1-Month Rally?

That wraps up our initial coverage of IREN’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Bull Case: AI Cloud Momentum Justifies the Rally

• AI Cloud revenue more than doubled sequentially to $70.5 million and grew roughly 8x YoY to $128.8 million in FY26.
• CEO Daniel Roberts says “2026 capacity is largely sold out,” with $4 billion contracted ARR targeted to be operational by year-end.
• $14 billion in committed financing and prepayments plus $5.9 billion cash removes near-term funding risk.

Bear Case: Miss and Impairments Cloud the Quarter

• Q4 revenue of $137.2 million missed by 2.52% and fell 26.75% YoY.
• A $450.4 million impairment drove a $684 million net loss.
• Adjusted EBITDA collapsed to $19.2 million from $59.5 million sequentially.
• Analysts’ price target of $80.19 versus a stretched 54x P/E leaves little margin for delivery slippage.

Overall Grade: C+ IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) mixed a headline revenue miss with a transformative AI cloud ramp and a heavy impairment, leaving execution as the swing factor.

Bottom Line: The $450.4M impairment and EBITDA slide sting, but AI cloud revenue more than doubled sequentially and Horizon 1 shipped to Microsoft.

IREN says its 2026 AI capacity is largely sold out, supporting $4 billion of contracted ARR, including $1 billion already operating today.

Demand is extending even further, with late-stage discussions covering a significant portion of 2027 capacity and customer and financing talks already underway for 2028.

Pricing is also improving, rising from more than $20 million per megawatt on recent three-year contracts to roughly $25 million in current discussions, implying a payback period of approximately two years.

The financing structure could weaken the dilution bear case. Customer prepayments are covering 45-55% of GPU capital expenditures, while a new $2.8 billion financing facility covers 90% of the associated GPU spending. Combined, those two sources exceed the required GPU capex.

IREN also signed an undisclosed multiyear contract with a “leading frontier AI lab,” giving investors another potential catalyst once the customer and contract value become public.

IREN just reported earnings, with shares initially flat following the results. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $137.2 million vs. roughly $135.6 million expected
• AI Cloud Revenue: $70.5 million vs. $33.6 million last quarter
• Adjusted EBITDA: $19.2 million vs. $59.5 million last quarter
• Net Loss: $684 million, including $450.4 million of non-cash impairments
• EPS: Not yet available vs. a $0.61 loss expected

Quick Read:

• AI cloud revenue more than doubled sequentially and surpassed Bitcoin mining revenue for the first time, demonstrating how quickly IREN’s business is shifting toward AI infrastructure.
• IREN now has $4 billion of contracted ARR for its 2026 capacity, with $1 billion already operating, most 2026 capacity sold, and customer prepayments covering 45% to 55% of GPU capital expenditures.
• The $684 million GAAP loss looks brutal, but $450.4 million came from non-cash impairments tied to the mining-to-AI transition. IREN also holds $7.6 billion in cash and announced a new multiyear contract with a leading frontier AI lab.

IREN is expected to report Q4 fiscal 2026 results at 5:15 PM ET tonight, with consensus EPS at a $0.42 loss.

The company’s $3.4 billion NVIDIA AI cloud contract transformed its growth story last quarter, but tonight investors need evidence that GPU deployments and the Microsoft handoff remain on schedule.

A credible path toward the projected $3.7 billion ARR exit rate would validate IREN’s push to convert five gigawatts of secured power into contracted computing revenue.

Any deployment delay, financing setback, or additional mining impairment could threaten the narrative supporting the stock’s 81% 1-year gain.