Rivian up 38%, Lucid down 72%: How a $10,000 EV bet played out
As seen on the 24/7 Wall St. homepage on July 16, 2026.
A $10,000 bet on Rivian a year ago is now worth $13,793 while the same Lucid investment cratered to $2,821—a $10,972 divergence in the EV startup survival race.
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Rivian and Lucid both entered the year as high-risk bets on the future of electric vehicles, but their paths over the past twelve months could not have looked more different. A $10,000 position in Rivian (RIVN) grew to $13,793, a total return of nearly 38%. The same amount placed in Lucid (LCID) shrank to just $2,821, a loss of almost 72%. That gap of $10,972 between the two outcomes captures just how uneven the EV startup survival race has become.
The chart tells a particularly stark story for Lucid shareholders. After a brief surge early in the period that briefly lifted the hypothetical $10,000 stake to $13,668, Lucid's value went into a prolonged slide that accelerated sharply in the back half of the year, bottoming well below $3,000 before a modest recovery to its current $2,821. Rivian's ride was also volatile — the position touched $17,554 at its peak before pulling back — but it held its gains far better and finished the period meaningfully in the black.
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The divergence underscores that not all EV startups are navigating the same headwinds equally. Rivian closed the period at a 1.38x multiple on the original investment, while Lucid managed only 0.28x, meaning investors kept less than thirty cents of every dollar they put in. For anyone tracking which young EV makers are building staying power and which are burning through investor patience, this one-year comparison offers a clear-eyed illustration of the stakes involved.