Freeport-McMoRan Inc
Q1 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +8.13%.
Did FCX Beat Earnings? Q1 2025 Results
Freeport-McMoRan delivered a modest but clear beat in the first quarter of 2025, with earnings of $0.24 per diluted share edging past the $0.23 consensus estimate by 2.52%, while revenue of $5.73 billion topped expectations by 4.81% despite falling 7.8% year over year from $6.32 billion. The year-over-year revenue decline was largely explained by a planned major maintenance project at the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, which weighed heavily on copper and gold sales volumes, though stronger realized prices, with copper averaging $4.44 per pound versus $3.94 a year earlier and gold jumping to $3,072 per ounce from $2,145, provided meaningful support. Unit net cash costs rose to $2.07 per pound from $1.51 in the prior-year period, though management expects that figure to normalize to $1.50 per pound for the full year as Indonesian volumes recover. With analysts pointing to a compelling free cash flow outlook driven by rising volumes and cost improvements, Freeport guided for roughly $7.0 billion in operating cash flows for 2025, assuming copper at $4.15 per pound.
- Higher average realized copper price of $4.44/lb vs $3.94/lb in Q1 2024
- Higher average realized gold price of $3,072/oz vs $2,145/oz in Q1 2024
- Copper sales volumes exceeding January 2025 guidance of 850 million pounds
- COMEX copper premium of approximately 13% over LME for U.S. mines
- Favorable adjustments to prior period provisionally priced sales of $70 million
- Strong mill rates helping mitigate lower grades vs Q1 2024 in U.S. operations
- Molybdenum gross profit per pound improved to $3.15 from $1.26 in Q1 2024
“Our team remains focused on providing metals essential for the economy and everyday life. Our work to produce our products and grow safely, efficiently and responsibly has never been more important. We remain vigilant in our efforts to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and carefully manage operating, administrative and capital spending in this uncertain macroeconomic environment. Freeport is well positioned for the future with large-scale production of copper, gold and molybdenum, a highly qualified and experienced team with a proven track record, a portfolio of attractive organic growth opportunities and a strong balance sheet and financial position.”
Freeport-McMoRan CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
FCX expects consolidated sales volumes for full-year 2025 to approximate 4.0 billion pounds of copper, 1.6 million ounces of gold, and 88 million pounds of molybdenum, with Q2 2025 expected at 1.0 billion pounds of copper, 500 thousand ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum. Consolidated unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.50 per pound of copper for 2025 ($1.50/lb in Q2 2025), with site production and delivery costs of $2.61/lb for 2025 and $2.75/lb for Q2 2025. Operating cash flows are projected at approximately $7.0 billion for 2025, assuming copper at $4.15/lb, gold at $3,000/oz, and molybdenum at $20/lb for Q2-Q4. Each $0.10/lb change in copper for Q2-Q4 impacts operating cash flows by approximately $300 million, and each $0.10/lb COMEX premium over LME impacts by approximately $95 million. Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.4 billion for 2025 (excluding Indonesia downstream projects), including $2.8 billion for major projects ($1.1 billion planned, $1.7 billion discretionary) and $1.6 billion for other projects, plus $0.6 billion for PTFI's downstream facilities. PTFI's new smelter is expected to restart by mid-2025. The estimated consolidated effective tax rate for 2025 is approximately 39%. Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests is estimated at approximately $2.5 billion for the year. Quarterly copper sales are expected to increase through Q3 2025 (1,005/1,095/1,025 million lbs for Q2-Q4) and gold sales volumes are expected to reach 500/475/500 thousand ounces in Q2-Q4.
FCX YoY Financials
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Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.