Freeport-McMoRan Inc
Q3 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.45%.
Did FCX Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Freeport-McMoRan delivered a stronger-than-expected third quarter despite a catastrophic operational event that will shadow its results well into 2026, with adjusted earnings of $0.50 per share beating the $0.41 consensus by 21.01% and revenue of $6.97 billion topping estimates by 3.57% on 4.4% year-over-year growth. The headline numbers, however, carry an asterisk: a September 8 mud rush at the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine in Indonesia, which claimed seven lives and temporarily halted all mining at the site, cut an estimated 90 million pounds from copper production and contributed to a sharp drop in gold output to 287 thousand ounces from 456 thousand a year ago. Higher realized copper prices of $4.68 per pound and gold realizations of $3,539 per ounce helped offset volume losses, while unit net cash costs of $1.40 per pound came in well below July guidance. Looking ahead, FCX's outlook is heavily constrained by the incident, with Q4 copper sales guided to just 635 million pounds and a phased restart scenario pointing to roughly a 35% reduction in Indonesian production in 2026; institutional investors appear to be weighing that risk carefully against the company's otherwise resilient underlying business.
- Higher average realized copper price of $4.68/lb vs. $4.30/lb year-over-year
- Higher average realized gold price of $3,539/oz vs. $2,568/oz year-over-year
- Lower consolidated unit net cash costs of $1.40/lb vs. July 2025 guidance of $1.59/lb
- Higher U.S. copper mine sales volumes of 339 million pounds vs. 316 million pounds year-over-year
- Higher by-product credits, particularly gold and molybdenum
- Lower treatment charges at South America and Indonesia operations
- Molybdenum mines swung to gross profit of $0.64/lb vs. loss of $4.17/lb year-over-year on higher volumes and lower unit costs
- Indonesia operations unit net cash credits of $(0.92)/lb reflecting substantial gold by-product credits
“Our strong third-quarter 2025 results were overshadowed by the tragic incident at our Grasberg operation in September. The entire FCX organization is grieving for our coworkers lost in this accident and we remain steadfast in our commitment to prioritize the safety of our workforce above all else. As a leading global supplier of copper and other metals with large-scale production, significant reserves and resources and an attractive pipeline for future growth, we are focused on the important role we play to provide copper, gold and molybdenum reliably and responsibly to a world with growing demand for metals.”
Freeport-McMoRan CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
FCX expects consolidated 2025 sales of approximately 3.5 billion pounds of copper, 1.05 million ounces of gold, and 82 million pounds of molybdenum. Q4 2025 assumes minimal contribution from Indonesia operations, with projected sales of 635 million pounds of copper, 60 thousand ounces of gold, and 21 million pounds of molybdenum. Full-year 2025 operating cash flows are expected to approximate $5.5 billion, net of $0.7 billion of working capital uses, assuming Q4 prices of $4.75/lb copper, $4,000/oz gold, and $25.00/lb molybdenum. Capital expenditures are expected at approximately $4.5 billion for 2025, roughly $0.4 billion below prior guidance, with $3.9 billion excluding PTFI downstream projects ($2.3 billion for major projects and $1.6 billion for other projects). Consolidated unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.68/lb copper for 2025, including $2.47/lb in Q4 reflecting minimal Indonesia volumes. Site production and delivery costs expected at $2.77/lb for full year 2025 and $3.21/lb for Q4. For 2026, a phased restart scenario indicates a potential 35% reduction in PTFI production versus pre-incident estimates. FCX targets 300 million pounds of incremental copper from leaching initiatives in 2026.
FCX YoY Financials
FCX Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.