Freeport-McMoRan Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.24%.
Did FCX Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Freeport-McMoRan delivered a decisive earnings beat in Q4 2025, posting adjusted EPS of $0.47 against a consensus estimate of $0.31, a 51.61% positive surprise, even as the September 2025 mud rush at its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia cast a long shadow over the quarter. Revenue of $5.63 billion edged past the $5.45 billion consensus by 3.40%, though it fell 4.2% year-over-year as the Grasberg disruption slashed copper production to 640 million pounds from 1.0 billion in the year-ago period and collapsed gold output to just 65 thousand ounces from 432 thousand, with Indonesia's operations recording a gross loss of $51 million on $585 million in noncash and incident-related charges. Higher realized copper prices of $5.33 per pound, up sharply from $4.15 a year earlier, helped cushion the volume hit. FCX's recovery roadmap calls for a phased Grasberg restart beginning Q2 2026, with roughly 85% of normal production rates targeted for H2 2026, and the company projects copper sales rebounding to approximately 4.1 to 4.2 billion pounds annually by 2027 and 2028, though shares have faced pressure as copper prices softened on rising exchange inventories.
- Higher average realized copper prices ($5.33/lb vs $4.15/lb YoY in Q4)
- Higher average realized gold prices ($4,078/oz vs $2,628/oz YoY in Q4)
- Favorable provisional pricing adjustments of $144 million in Q4 2025
- Higher U.S. copper mine sales volumes (342M lbs vs 318M lbs in Q4 YoY)
- Incremental copper from leaching innovations totaled 60 million pounds in Q4 and 214 million pounds for full year 2025
- Impact of September 2025 mud rush incident at PTFI significantly reduced Indonesia production
- U.S. copper mining operating income improved approximately 3.5x versus Q4 2024
- Cerro Verde mill exceeded 400,000 metric tons per day in 2025
“Freeport is strongly positioned for the future as a leading producer of copper with large scale, geographically diverse operations and an exciting portfolio of growth projects to provide additional supplies of copper to a growing market. As we enter 2026, our team has a clear focus on restoring operations at Grasberg safely and sustainably, and on continuing to build values in the Americas through our innovative growth and efficiency initiatives. Our experienced team is committed to value creation through strong execution of our plans, operational excellence and advancing opportunities for long-term organic growth.”
Freeport-McMoRan CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For 2026, FCX expects consolidated sales of approximately 3.4 billion pounds of copper, 0.8 million ounces of gold, and 90 million pounds of molybdenum, with Q1 2026 sales estimated at 640 million pounds of copper, 60 thousand ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum. Approximately 60% of copper sales and 75% of gold sales are expected in H2 2026, reflecting the phased Grasberg restart beginning Q2 2026. Consolidated unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.75 per pound of copper for 2026 ($2.60 in Q1 2026). Operating cash flows are projected at approximately $8 billion assuming $5.00/lb copper, $4,000/oz gold, and $20/lb molybdenum, or approximately $11 billion at recent prices of $5.75/lb copper, $4,700/oz gold, and $23/lb molybdenum. Capital expenditures are expected at approximately $4.3 billion, including $3.0 billion for major mining projects. The consolidated effective tax rate for 2026 is estimated at approximately 33%. Looking further ahead, FCX projects copper sales of approximately 4.1 billion pounds in 2027 and 4.2 billion pounds in 2028, with gold sales of approximately 1.2 million ounces in 2027 and 1.3 million ounces in 2028.
FCX YoY Financials
FCX Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.