Freeport-McMoRan Inc
Q2 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +1.75%.
Did FCX Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Freeport-McMoRan delivered a standout second quarter, posting adjusted EPS of $0.54 against a consensus estimate of $0.45, a beat of nearly 21%, while revenue of $7.58 billion cleared expectations by 5.44% and climbed 19.0% year over year. The headline driver was a combination of favorable copper and gold pricing alongside exceptional cost discipline, with consolidated unit net cash costs coming in at just $1.13 per pound, well below the guided $1.50, largely due to stronger-than-expected gold by-product credits. Copper sales volumes of 1.0 billion pounds also exceeded April guidance, adding further lift to the quarter. Looking ahead, the company sees a significant tariff-driven tailwind; with a 50% levy on U.S. copper imports on the horizon, <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/07/09/2-copper-stocks-poised-to-profit-after-trump-imposes-50-tariff-on-imports/">Freeport stands to benefit</a> as America's dominant domestic copper producer. Management guides full-year 2025 operating cash flows of approximately $7.9 billion when factoring in a $1.25 per pound COMEX premium, with annual copper sales targeted at 3.95 billion pounds.
- Favorable U.S. copper pricing with COMEX settlement approximately 28% above LME settlement price
- Strong gold prices averaging $3,291 per ounce in Q2 2025 driving higher by-product credits
- Unit net cash costs of $1.13/lb significantly below $1.50/lb guidance due to higher by-product credits
- Copper sales volumes above April 2025 guidance driven by timing of shipments
- Gold sales of 522 thousand ounces exceeded guidance of 500 thousand ounces
- Higher milling rates and ore grades in U.S. operations
- Molybdenum mines swung to gross profit of $26 million from loss of $12 million year ago on lower unit costs
- Indonesia operations gross profit increased to $1,903 million from $1,347 million year ago driven by higher gold volumes and pricing
“As a leading copper producer, our role is increasingly important in providing essential metals to a growing market. Our global team is committed to producing and growing our production safely, efficiently and responsibly, and we are challenging ourselves to improve efficiencies and leverage new technologies to drive better performance and grow production more quickly with lower capital intensity. We achieved a major milestone during the second quarter with the startup of our new large-scale copper smelter in Indonesia. We are well positioned for the future, both domestically, as America's copper champion, and internationally, with large-scale production of copper, gold and molybdenum, a highly qualified and experienced team, a portfolio of attractive organic growth opportunities and a strong balance sheet and financial position.”
Freeport-McMoRan CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
FCX expects consolidated sales volumes for full-year 2025 to approximate 3.95 billion pounds of copper, 1.3 million ounces of gold, and 82 million pounds of molybdenum. Q3 2025 sales are guided at 1.0 billion pounds of copper, 350 thousand ounces of gold, and 18 million pounds of molybdenum. Q4 2025 sales are guided at 1.07 billion pounds of copper, 335 thousand ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum. Consolidated unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.55 per pound of copper for 2025 (including $1.59 in Q3). Excluding tariff impacts, operating cash flows are expected to approximate $7.0 billion for 2025 at assumed prices of $4.40/lb copper, $3,300/oz gold, and $22.00/lb molybdenum; including a $1.25/lb COMEX premium on U.S. copper for H2 2025, operating cash flows would approximate $7.9 billion. Capital expenditures are expected at approximately $4.3 billion for 2025 (excluding PTFI downstream projects), including $2.7 billion for major projects and $1.6 billion for other projects. PTFI's new smelter full ramp-up is expected by year-end 2025. The consolidated effective tax rate is estimated at approximately 37% for 2025, or approximately 33% including the U.S. copper premium. PTFI sales guidance was revised to 1.54 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold for 2025 (from April guidance of 1.6 billion copper and 1.6 million gold), reflecting updated ore grade modeling, though five-year cumulative copper volumes remain unchanged at 8.4 billion pounds and gold declined only 3% to 7.0 million ounces. For 2026-2027, average annual copper sales are projected at approximately 4.3 billion pounds, gold at 1.5-1.6 million ounces, and molybdenum at 90-95 million pounds. Leach innovation targeting run rate of 300-400 million pounds per annum by 2026 and 800 million pounds per annum by 2030.
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Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.